HR DNA · TONIGHT'S BOARD

Who's going to homer tonight?

Every batter on tonight's slate scored against their own historical HR signature — park type, opposing pitcher arsenal, month, days of rest. Only factors with a real statistical edge (Bayesian-shrunk, min sample 15 games) contribute. The model's live HR probability is on the right so you can sanity-check the DNA against tonight's simulated odds.

// 80 CANDIDATES// 80 WITH HR SIGNATURE// FULL SLATE — CLICK A COLUMN TO SORT
// SORTED BY SCORE ↓ · CLICK ANY COLUMN HEADER TO RE-SORT
#BatterTeamOpp pitcherPitcher arsenalScore↓Fav / TotMatchup HRHR vs BullpenSeason HRTop factorsModel HR%Save
1Isaac ParedesHOU——+2.214 / 4—015
NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherSummer game (Jun-Aug)Playing at home
16.4%
2Mookie BettsLAD——+1.705 / 5—014
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)Playing at home
27.1%
3Eugenio SuárezCIN——+1.014 / 5—314
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)Playing at homeNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
26.7%
4Yainer DiazHOU——+0.902 / 2—28
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
10.6%
5Cody BellingerNYY——+0.892 / 2—211
NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
17.8%
6Randy ArozarenaSEA——+0.893 / 3—015
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
19.8%
7Mickey MoniakCOL——+0.813 / 3—017
Playing at homeNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Summer game (Jun-Aug)
29.3%
8Nathaniel LoweCIN——+0.792 / 2—013
Playing at homeNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
21.9%
9Josh BellMIN——+0.783 / 3—113
NOT Playing at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Summer game (Jun-Aug)
17.9%
10Junior CamineroTBR——+0.663 / 4—030
Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
21.8%
11Nolan ArenadoARI——+0.602 / 3—015
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
11.3%
12William ContrerasMIL——+0.592 / 3—013
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
8.8%
13Ryan McMahonNYY——+0.553 / 5—19
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Playing at homeSummer game (Jun-Aug)
24.8%
14Bobby Witt Jr.KCR——+0.553 / 4—113
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Playing at homeNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
28.0%
15Bryan ReynoldsPIT——+0.521 / 1—215
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
14.4%
16Salvador PerezKCR——+0.512 / 2—017
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
26.8%
17Zach NetoLAA——+0.502 / 2—119
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
20.3%
18Josh NaylorSEA——+0.482 / 3—18
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
13.0%
19Andrew VaughnMIL——+0.463 / 5—05
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Playing at homeSummer game (Jun-Aug)
9.2%
20Max MuncyLAD——+0.462 / 3—022
NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
10.8%
21Vinnie PasquantinoKCR——+0.411 / 1—16
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
20.4%
22CJ AbramsWSN——+0.401 / 1—228
NOT Playing at home
21.3%
23Spencer SteerCIN——+0.361 / 1—117
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
18.2%
24Willson ContrerasBOS——+0.352 / 3—023
Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT Playing at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
22.8%
25Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY——+0.331 / 1—016
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
22.6%
26Yandy DíazTBR——+0.322 / 3—015
Summer game (Jun-Aug)Playing at homeNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
16.7%
27Jo AdellLAA——+0.311 / 1—017
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
19.6%
28Francisco LindorNYM——+0.311 / 1—19
NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
18.4%
29Paul GoldschmidtNYY——+0.291 / 1—016
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
17.2%
30Francisco AlvarezNYM——+0.251 / 1—012
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
13.1%
31Shohei OhtaniLAD——+0.231 / 1—124
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
25.4%
32Riley GreeneDET——+0.202 / 4—016
Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT Playing at home
19.2%
33Hunter GoodmanCOL——+0.191 / 2—133
Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
35.0%
34Bo BichetteNYM——+0.181 / 2—111
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
11.5%
35Jose AltuveHOU——+0.172 / 3—012
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Summer game (Jun-Aug)
10.3%
36Max KeplerARI——+0.152 / 3—22
NOT Playing at homeHR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Summer game (Jun-Aug)
16.4%
37Kyle SchwarberPHI——+0.101 / 2—134
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
16.2%
38Elly De La CruzCIN——+0.081 / 2—119
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
22.1%
39Willy AdamesSFG——+0.082 / 4—018
Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT ≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
19.8%
40Austin RileyATL——+0.081 / 2—014
NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
19.1%
41Trent GrishamNYY——+0.051 / 2—011
NOT Playing at homeNOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
24.5%
42Spencer TorkelsonDET——+0.051 / 2—022
Summer game (Jun-Aug)HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
28.0%
43Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI——+0.021 / 2—22
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Playing at home
10.3%
44Juan SotoNYM——+0.000 / 0—321—26.3%
45Rafael DeversSFG——+0.000 / 0—022—21.9%
46Ian HappCHC——+0.000 / 0—119—21.3%
47Pete AlonsoBAL——+0.000 / 0—123—21.0%
48Lane ThomasKCR——+0.000 / 0—011—19.2%
49Gunnar HendersonBAL——+0.000 / 0—019—16.3%
50Christian YelichMIL——-0.011 / 2—08
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
11.7%
51Kerry CarpenterDET——-0.061 / 2—013
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Summer game (Jun-Aug)
20.6%
52Corbin CarrollARI——-0.071 / 2—016
NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherSummer game (Jun-Aug)
18.8%
53Manny MachadoSDP——-0.131 / 3—023
Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
16.9%
54Teoscar HernándezLAD——-0.171 / 3—112
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
18.3%
55Christian WalkerHOU——-0.201 / 4—123
NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherPlaying at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
19.4%
56Shea LangeliersOAK——-0.211 / 3—024
NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherHR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Playing at home
33.4%
57Julio RodríguezSEA——-0.221 / 3—017
NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherPlaying at homeHR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
20.6%
58Cal RaleighSEA——-0.240 / 1—411
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
28.4%
59Trea TurnerPHI——-0.240 / 1—016
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
10.9%
60Bryce HarperPHI——-0.240 / 1—022
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
16.7%
61Ketel MarteARI——-0.251 / 2—019
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Summer game (Jun-Aug)
15.8%
62Jorge SolerLAA——-0.260 / 1—014
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
15.3%
63James WoodWSN——-0.270 / 1—231
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
22.7%
64Alex BregmanCHC——-0.291 / 3—014
Playing at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
14.8%
65Dansby SwansonCHC——-0.290 / 1—216
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
21.3%
66Daulton VarshoTOR——-0.390 / 1—08
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
12.3%
67Taylor WardBAL——-0.520 / 2—17
Playing at homeNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
14.2%
68Michael Harris IIATL——-0.531 / 4—020
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Summer game (Jun-Aug)Playing at home
15.0%
69Seiya SuzukiCHC——-0.530 / 2—118
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
20.4%
70Brandon LowePIT——-0.540 / 1—023
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
23.3%
71Freddie FreemanLAD——-0.550 / 2—016
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Playing at home
17.5%
72Ozzie AlbiesATL——-0.591 / 4—018
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Playing at homeNOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
12.6%
73George SpringerTOR——-0.600 / 2—115
NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
16.0%
74Yordan AlvarezHOU——-0.620 / 2—135
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
33.8%
75Matt OlsonATL——-0.770 / 3—231
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
19.0%
76Mike TroutLAA——-0.901 / 5—118
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Playing at home
19.4%
77Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR——-0.930 / 3—07
NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Playing at homeNOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
11.7%
78Kyle TuckerLAD——-1.280 / 2—010
NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Playing at home
16.4%
79Michael BuschCHC——-1.430 / 4—114
Playing at homeNOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
19.3%
80Fernando Tatis Jr.SDP——-1.481 / 5—18
NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Playing at home
11.7%
Match scores combine 12 Bayesian-shrunk factors — 7 batter-context (park, month, rest) and 5 pitcher-context (FB usage, BAA, xwOBA allowed, whiff%, EV allowed). Click any row for the full DNA breakdown on that player's page.
How we score it →