Every batter on tonight's slate scored against their own historical HR signature — park type, opposing pitcher arsenal, month, days of rest. Only factors with a real statistical edge (Bayesian-shrunk, min sample 15 games) contribute. The model's live HR probability is on the right so you can sanity-check the DNA against tonight's simulated odds.
| # | Batter | Team | Opp pitcher | Pitcher arsenal | Score↓ | Fav / Tot | Matchup HR | HR vs Bullpen | Season HR | Top factors | Model HR% | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SDP | Mason Adams | BAA .265 xwOBA .340 EV 93.2 | +1.44 | 4 / 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%) | 14.8% | |
| 2 | Manny Machado | SDP | Mason Adams | BAA .265 xwOBA .340 EV 93.2 | +1.06 | 4 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 28 | Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherHR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 18.4% | |
| 3 | Trent Grisham | NYY | Zebby Matthews | FB% 60% BAA .271 xwOBA .337 EV 90.3 | +1.02 | 4 / 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340) | 19.9% | |
| 4 | Trea Turner | PHI | Jared Simpson | BAA .000 xwOBA .312 EV 90.6 | +0.89 | 2 / 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 11.2% | |
| 5 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | Andrew Abbott | FB% 52% BAA .243 xwOBA .320 EV 88.8 | +0.84 | 4 / 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Playing at home | 19.1% | |
| 6 | Marcus Semien | NYM | Chris Bassitt | FB% 66% BAA .254 xwOBA .321 EV 87.5 | +0.83 | 3 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 11.3% | |
| 7 | Ian Happ | CHC | JR Ritchie | FB% 56% BAA .206 xwOBA .355 EV 89.6 | +0.79 | 3 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0) | 17.9% | |
| 8 | Brandon Lowe | PIT | Logan Henderson | FB% 66% BAA .177 xwOBA .255 EV 87.3 | +0.78 | 3 / 4 | 0 | 3 | 29 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 20.9% | |
| 9 | Yandy Díaz | TBR | Brady Basso | FB% 83% BAA .274 xwOBA .276 EV 87.5 | +0.76 | 5 / 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)Playing at home | 17.1% | |
| 10 | Sean Murphy | ATL | Shota Imanaga | FB% 51% BAA .229 xwOBA .303 EV 88.7 | +0.70 | 2 / 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 19.4% | |
| 11 | Pete Alonso | BAL | Robert Stock | BAA .300 xwOBA .340 EV 87.4 | +0.69 | 3 / 4 | 0 | 1 | 35 | Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 21.0% | |
| 12 | Josh Naylor | SEA | Yusei Kikuchi | FB% 42% BAA .252 xwOBA .320 EV 89.7 | +0.67 | 3 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 14.6% | |
| 13 | Isaac Paredes | HOU | Daniel Lynch IV | FB% 47% BAA .231 xwOBA .337 EV 88.2 | +0.46 | 4 / 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 | Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherPlaying at home | 14.5% | |
| 14 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | Shota Imanaga | FB% 51% BAA .229 xwOBA .303 EV 88.7 | +0.39 | 4 / 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Playing at home | 19.7% | |
| 15 | Cody Bellinger | NYY | Zebby Matthews | FB% 60% BAA .271 xwOBA .337 EV 90.3 | +0.30 | 4 / 8 | 1 | 0 | 15 | Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)≥1 career HR vs this pitcherVs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260) | 15.3% | |
| 16 | Seiya Suzuki | CHC | JR Ritchie | FB% 56% BAA .206 xwOBA .355 EV 89.6 | +0.29 | 4 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0) | 20.2% | |
| 17 | Max Muncy | LAD | Nick Martinez | FB% 61% BAA .245 xwOBA .316 EV 86.2 | +0.25 | 3 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 29 | Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 21.1% | |
| 18 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | NYY | Zebby Matthews | FB% 60% BAA .271 xwOBA .337 EV 90.3 | +0.24 | 3 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 16.4% | |
| 19 | Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Jared Simpson | BAA .000 xwOBA .312 EV 90.6 | +0.23 | 2 / 3 | 0 | 0 | 45 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 23.0% | |
| 20 | Christian Yelich | MIL | Jared Jones | FB% 50% BAA .223 xwOBA .298 EV 89.2 | +0.21 | 2 / 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%) | 18.9% | |
| 21 | Mike Trout | LAA | George Kirby | FB% 57% BAA .254 xwOBA .311 EV 89.5 | +0.19 | 3 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 24.3% | |
| 22 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | CHC | JR Ritchie | FB% 56% BAA .206 xwOBA .355 EV 89.6 | +0.18 | 4 / 9 | 0 | 0 | 42 | Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 22.3% | |
| 23 | Bo Bichette | NYM | Chris Bassitt | FB% 66% BAA .254 xwOBA .321 EV 87.5 | +0.18 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 10.9% | |
| 24 | Salvador Perez | KCR | Cristian Javier | FB% 49% BAA .232 xwOBA .325 EV 88.7 | +0.16 | 2 / 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 20.8% | |
| 25 | Eugenio Suárez | CIN | Blake Snell | FB% 43% BAA .184 xwOBA .281 EV 85.6 | +0.15 | 4 / 8 | 0 | 3 | 24 | NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 19.1% | |
| 26 | Julio Rodríguez | SEA | Yusei Kikuchi | FB% 42% BAA .252 xwOBA .320 EV 89.7 | +0.14 | 2 / 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT Playing at homeVs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 20.4% | |
| 27 | Nathaniel Lowe | CLE | Anthony Kay | FB% 65% BAA .256 xwOBA .340 EV 87.3 | +0.10 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | Playing at homeHR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 12.8% | |
| 28 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | Andrew Abbott | FB% 52% BAA .243 xwOBA .320 EV 88.8 | +0.09 | 1 / 2 | 1 | 2 | 30 | NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphNOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%) | 25.7% | |
| 29 | Mickey Moniak | COL | Robbie Ray | FB% 53% BAA .213 xwOBA .319 EV 89.4 | +0.07 | 2 / 4 | 0 | 2 | 22 | Playing at homeVs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 23.1% | |
| 30 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | Keider Montero | FB% 53% BAA .237 xwOBA .321 EV 88.5 | +0.05 | 3 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Playing at homeNOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0) | 15.3% | |
| 31 | Rafael Devers | SFG | Matthew Liberatore | FB% 54% BAA .262 xwOBA .343 EV 89.5 | +0.03 | 1 / 3 | 0 | 1 | 37 | Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 16.3% | |
| 32 | Bryce Harper | PHI | Jared Simpson | BAA .000 xwOBA .312 EV 90.6 | +0.00 | 0 / 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | — | 14.4% | |
| 33 | Gunnar Henderson | BAL | Robert Stock | BAA .300 xwOBA .340 EV 87.4 | +0.00 | 0 / 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | — | 11.3% | |
| 34 | Corey Seager | TEX | Jake Bennett | FB% 79% BAA .235 xwOBA .286 EV 86.9 | -0.05 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 17.6% | |
| 35 | Max Muncy | LAD | Andrew Abbott | FB% 52% BAA .243 xwOBA .320 EV 88.8 | -0.05 | 3 / 6 | 0 | 1 | 29 | NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 19.7% | |
| 36 | Juan Soto | NYM | Chris Bassitt | FB% 66% BAA .254 xwOBA .321 EV 87.5 | -0.05 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 25 | NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 24.1% | |
| 37 | Francisco Alvarez | NYM | Chris Bassitt | FB% 66% BAA .254 xwOBA .321 EV 87.5 | -0.07 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 15.2% | |
| 38 | Nolan Gorman | STL | Anthony Molina | FB% 49% BAA .307 xwOBA .397 EV 88.9 | -0.08 | 2 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 33.4% | |
| 39 | Corbin Carroll | ARI | Ryan Gusto | FB% 67% BAA .269 xwOBA .337 EV 90.1 | -0.11 | 2 / 5 | 0 | 3 | 22 | Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340) | 20.7% | |
| 40 | Jake Burger | TEX | Jake Bennett | FB% 79% BAA .235 xwOBA .286 EV 86.9 | -0.16 | 1 / 3 | 0 | 2 | 27 | NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260) | 14.6% | |
| 41 | Junior Caminero | TBR | Brady Basso | FB% 83% BAA .274 xwOBA .276 EV 87.5 | -0.17 | 2 / 6 | 0 | 2 | 40 | NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphVs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 22.4% | |
| 42 | Taylor Ward | SEA | Yusei Kikuchi | FB% 42% BAA .252 xwOBA .320 EV 89.7 | -0.18 | 2 / 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Playing at home | 15.8% | |
| 43 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | Blake Snell | FB% 43% BAA .184 xwOBA .281 EV 85.6 | -0.25 | 1 / 3 | 0 | 1 | 28 | Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 17.8% | |
| 44 | Josh Bell | MIN | Carlos Rodón | FB% 59% BAA .214 xwOBA .315 EV 89.9 | -0.28 | 1 / 3 | 0 | 2 | 20 | Playing at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 17.8% | |
| 45 | Teoscar Hernández | LAD | Andrew Abbott | FB% 52% BAA .243 xwOBA .320 EV 88.8 | -0.34 | 3 / 6 | 0 | 3 | 17 | NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 23.1% | |
| 46 | Christian Walker | HOU | Daniel Lynch IV | FB% 47% BAA .231 xwOBA .337 EV 88.2 | -0.38 | 3 / 9 | 0 | 0 | 26 | Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 20.0% | |
| 47 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Daniel Lynch IV | FB% 47% BAA .231 xwOBA .337 EV 88.2 | -0.43 | 1 / 3 | 0 | 2 | 38 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 25.1% | |
| 48 | Willson Contreras | BOS | MacKenzie Gore | FB% 61% BAA .252 xwOBA .321 EV 88.7 | -0.44 | 2 / 5 | 1 | 0 | 26 | NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT Playing at home | 18.9% | |
| 49 | George Springer | TOR | Keider Montero | FB% 53% BAA .237 xwOBA .321 EV 88.5 | -0.48 | 1 / 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 17.3% | |
| 50 | Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yusei Kikuchi | FB% 42% BAA .252 xwOBA .320 EV 89.7 | -0.48 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 | NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphNOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%) | 27.6% | |
| 51 | Zach Neto | LAA | George Kirby | FB% 57% BAA .254 xwOBA .311 EV 89.5 | -0.50 | 0 / 2 | 1 | 0 | 26 | NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 19.9% | |
| 52 | Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Logan Henderson | FB% 66% BAA .177 xwOBA .255 EV 87.3 | -0.52 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 19.3% | |
| 53 | Daulton Varsho | HOU | Daniel Lynch IV | FB% 47% BAA .231 xwOBA .337 EV 88.2 | -0.59 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 10.9% | |
| 54 | Jose Altuve | HOU | Daniel Lynch IV | FB% 47% BAA .231 xwOBA .337 EV 88.2 | -0.63 | 2 / 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph | 11.5% | |
| 55 | Vinnie Pasquantino | KCR | Cristian Javier | FB% 49% BAA .232 xwOBA .325 EV 88.7 | -0.65 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 20.5% | |
| 56 | Michael Busch | CHC | JR Ritchie | FB% 56% BAA .206 xwOBA .355 EV 89.6 | -0.74 | 1 / 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | Playing at homeCold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 20.0% | |
| 57 | Francisco Lindor | NYM | Chris Bassitt | FB% 66% BAA .254 xwOBA .321 EV 87.5 | -0.75 | 1 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340) | 20.1% | |
| 58 | Alex Bregman | CHC | JR Ritchie | FB% 56% BAA .206 xwOBA .355 EV 89.6 | -0.75 | 1 / 5 | 0 | 1 | 28 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Playing at home | 12.0% | |
| 59 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | Max Scherzer | FB% 51% BAA .237 xwOBA .307 EV 88.0 | -0.90 | 2 / 8 | 0 | 1 | 25 | NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 24.0% | |
| 60 | Yainer Diaz | HOU | Daniel Lynch IV | FB% 47% BAA .231 xwOBA .337 EV 88.2 | -0.90 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 11.3% | |
| 61 | Mookie Betts | LAD | Andrew Abbott | FB% 52% BAA .243 xwOBA .320 EV 88.8 | -0.97 | 4 / 12 | 0 | 2 | 21 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%) | 21.6% | |
| 62 | Nolan Arenado | ARI | Ryan Gusto | FB% 67% BAA .269 xwOBA .337 EV 90.1 | -1.00 | 0 / 3 | 0 | 0 | 26 | Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 15.5% | |
| 63 | William Contreras | MIL | Jared Jones | FB% 50% BAA .223 xwOBA .298 EV 89.2 | -1.03 | 0 / 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 15.5% | |
| 64 | Randy Arozarena | SEA | Yusei Kikuchi | FB% 42% BAA .252 xwOBA .320 EV 89.7 | -1.03 | 1 / 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 | NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphVs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 15.6% | |
| 65 | Matt Olson | ATL | Shota Imanaga | FB% 51% BAA .229 xwOBA .303 EV 88.7 | -1.08 | 2 / 7 | 0 | 1 | 41 | Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 23.8% | |
| 66 | José Ramírez | CLE | Anthony Kay | FB% 65% BAA .256 xwOBA .340 EV 87.3 | -1.11 | 0 / 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 15.0% | |
| 67 | Michael Harris II | ATL | Shota Imanaga | FB% 51% BAA .229 xwOBA .303 EV 88.7 | -1.12 | 1 / 5 | 0 | 1 | 25 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 17.3% | |
| 68 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | Shota Imanaga | FB% 51% BAA .229 xwOBA .303 EV 88.7 | -1.37 | 0 / 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph | 20.7% | |
| 69 | CJ Abrams | WSN | Zack Wheeler | FB% 68% BAA .202 xwOBA .267 EV 86.7 | -1.38 | 1 / 6 | 0 | 2 | 30 | Playing at homeNOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 21.1% | |
| 70 | Austin Riley | ATL | Shota Imanaga | FB% 51% BAA .229 xwOBA .303 EV 88.7 | -1.47 | 2 / 8 | 0 | 1 | 19 | NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphNOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%) | 28.6% | |
| 71 | Gleyber Torres | DET | Max Scherzer | FB% 51% BAA .237 xwOBA .307 EV 88.0 | -1.48 | 0 / 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | NOT Playing at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 12.2% | |
| 72 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KCR | Cristian Javier | FB% 49% BAA .232 xwOBA .325 EV 88.7 | -1.56 | 2 / 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0) | 22.4% | |
| 73 | Hunter Goodman | COL | Robbie Ray | FB% 53% BAA .213 xwOBA .319 EV 89.4 | -1.81 | 0 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 40 | NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug)Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 28.3% | |
| 74 | Jo Adell | CLE | Anthony Kay | FB% 65% BAA .256 xwOBA .340 EV 87.3 | -1.93 | 1 / 10 | 0 | 0 | 22 | Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherPlaying at home | 22.4% | |
| 75 | Kyle Tucker | LAD | Andrew Abbott | FB% 52% BAA .243 xwOBA .320 EV 88.8 | -2.02 | 2 / 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Playing at homeNOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph | 12.8% | |
| 76 | Brandon Nimmo | TEX | Jake Bennett | FB% 79% BAA .235 xwOBA .286 EV 86.9 | -2.70 | 0 / 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340) | 11.4% |