← BALLBET GLOSSARY
Betting concepts

Expected value (+EV)

Also: +EV · EV · positive expected value

The average result of a bet if it were repeated many times; a positive expected value means the price is better than the true probability implies.

Expected value compares a bet's payoff against its probability. When a model's estimated probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the odds, the bet carries positive expected value — it is priced better than it should be. Negative expected value is the reverse, and is what the house edge represents.

Expected value is a statement about the long run, not any one bet. A positive-expected-value bet can and will lose individual outcomes; the case for it is that repeating similar bets is profitable on average.

Why it matters for prop research

BallBet expresses its model's edge as the gap between its projected probability and the market's implied probability. A positive edge is a positive-expected-value signal — not a prediction that a specific bet wins.

See it on BallBet

How edges are computedIs the model calibrated

Frequently asked

What does +EV mean in sports betting?

Positive expected value means a bet's price is better than its true probability warrants, so repeating similar bets is profitable on average. It describes the long run and does not guarantee any single bet wins.

Related terms

Closing line value (CLV)
Part of the BallBet glossary. For how these inputs feed the projections and edges, see the methodology.