Jake Burger

1B · RHB · RHP · TEX

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

MIA

Starter

Tyler Phillips (RHP)

Stadium

loanDepot park

Model HR%

15.2%

Model Hits%

71.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+6.4% edgemodel 72% · grade A

Why: NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%): -37.3% lift over 128 games · strong vs the Sinker (30% usage, .444 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	72%	+6.4%	90%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	15%	+3.7%	20%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Jake Burger, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	5-2	71%	+119.5%
A	0-5	0%	-100.0%
B	1-4	20%	-69.2%

Combined 6-11 · n=17 · ROI -0.5% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 22%

Matchup

Jake Burger (RHB) vs Tyler Phillips RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Tyler Phillips RHP · season · 55.1 IP · 237 BF

BAA

.221

wOBA

.317

SLG

.356

ISO

.135

WHIP

1.36

HR/9

0.82

BB%

12.2%

20.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.2%

HH%

38.5%

FB%

33.3%

HR/FB%

15.6%

Jake Burger hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	73-292	.250	.445	.195	14	8.2%	28.4%
vs RHP	58-234	.248	.427	.179	10	7.9%	28.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Tyler Phillips's arsenal × how Jake Burger hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Tyler Phillips throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSinker	30%	95.6	9%	.293
TOPSweeper	23%	84.5	43%	.311
TOPCurveball	21%	84.0	41%	.386
Splitter	17%	87.4	34%	.247
Four-Seam	8%	95.2	8%	.420
Cutter	0%	90.4	0%	—

Jake Burger vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSinker	429	13%	.444	90.8
TOPSweeper	255	40%	.366	87.1
TOPCurveball	100	23%	.361	93.3
Splitter	63	35%	.340	85.0
Four-Seam	536	26%	.408	93.6
Cutter	146	25%	.344	87.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.1

Our model72% OVER+6.4% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0

Plate Appearancesavg 4.0

Hitsavg 1.1

Singlesavg 0.7

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.9

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 1.2

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	10%	—	+450	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	72%	+6.4%	-189	+0.5	Sign in
1.5	OVER	B	30%	+3.4%	+280	+1.3	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-2.5%	+1100	-0.8	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	15%	+3.7%	+775	-0.4	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+198	+0.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+550	+0.0	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	53%	—	+120	+0.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+600	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	A	45%	—	+168	-0.4	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=318 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	73-292	.250	.445	.195	15	14	26	28.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	15-58	.259	.517	.259	3	4	6	29.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	58-234	.248	.427	.179	12	10	20	28.2%
Last 15 days recent form	15-42	.357	.643	.286	3	3	6	26.2%
vs MIA tonight's opponent (full roster)	3-24	.125	.167	.042	1	0	3	33.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.309

wOBA0.326

delta+0.017 hot

n=317 PA

Spray chart

489 balls in play since 2025· wind 9 mph cross-wind

Balls in play489

HR rate6.3%

Hard-hit (95+)50%

Avg exit velo91.1 mph

Ground ball42%

Line drive23%

Fly ball27%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

-37.3%significant

n=350 games · 31/222 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+40.1%significant

n=352 games · 17/69 HR when active

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+30.4%significant

n=354 games · 8/30 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

4 / 8FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

-40% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
-29% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
-23% HR rate when opposing starter's recent fb velo down ≥1 mph.

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

0.60× HR rate

134 yes / 213 no · 60 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+40%

69 yes / 283 no · 62 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

0.63× HR rate

222 yes / 128 no · 62 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+30%

30 yes / 324 no · 63 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−29%

133 yes / 221 no · 63 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−26%

85 yes / 269 no · 63 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−23%

54 yes / 252 no · 48 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+21%

60 yes / 181 no · 30 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−20%

208 yes / 134 no · 59 HRs

// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

+41%

9 yes / 328 no · 59 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+13%

70 yes / 281 no · 62 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−12%

119 yes / 235 no · 63 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

+9%

8 yes / 346 no · 63 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+9%

155 yes / 196 no · 62 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−9%

190 yes / 164 no · 63 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−9%

45 yes / 305 no · 62 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+8%

57 yes / 294 no · 62 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−7%

153 yes / 195 no · 62 HRs

Playing at home

−6%

180 yes / 174 no · 63 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+5%

87 yes / 250 no · 59 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 353 no · 63 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

neutral

57 yes / 271 no · 61 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

21 yes / 332 no · 63 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

148 yes / 206 no · 63 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

122 yes / 232 no · 63 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

neutral

264 yes / 89 no · 63 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 350 no · 62 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-20	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-06-19	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-06-18	4	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-16	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-15	4	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-14	5	1	1	0	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 K
2026-06-13	4	1	0	1	1	2	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-12	3	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-06-11	4	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-3 · 1 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Jake Burger across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.