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Yordan Alvarez
DH · LHB · RHP · HOU
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Yordan Alvarez, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-3 | 63% | +8.4% |
| A | 3-4 | 43% | -13.2% |
| B | 3-1 | 75% | +1.1% |
Combined 11-8 · n=19 · ROI -1.1% · avg CLV -6.0 pts · beat close 38%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.9Plate Appearancesavg 4.9
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.4
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 1.3
Splits
Career n=512 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.466
wOBA0.447
delta−0.019 due
n=511 PA
Spray chart
479 balls in play since 2025Balls in play479
HR rate8.1%
Hard-hit (95+)55%
Avg exit velo94.8 mph
Ground ball32%
Line drive27%
Fly ball35%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-21.8%significant
n=316 games · 29/152 HR when active
-20.3%significant
n=316 games · 10/59 HR when active
+24.8%significant
n=300 games · 41/164 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
1.56× HR rate
35 yes / 281 no · 71 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+25%
164 yes / 136 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−22%
152 yes / 164 no · 71 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−21%
18 yes / 298 no · 70 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+21%
121 yes / 196 no · 71 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−20%
59 yes / 257 no · 71 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Playing at home
−18%
170 yes / 147 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−17%
51 yes / 246 no · 67 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+17%
172 yes / 51 no · 58 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−16%
188 yes / 124 no · 69 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+16%
169 yes / 148 no · 71 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+15%
228 yes / 86 no · 71 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−13%
4 yes / 302 no · 70 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+13%
5 yes / 312 no · 71 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−13%
118 yes / 192 no · 70 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+11%
47 yes / 270 no · 71 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+9%
56 yes / 258 no · 71 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+9%
52 yes / 263 no · 71 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+8%
217 yes / 100 no · 71 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+7%
15 yes / 302 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+7%
51 yes / 208 no · 66 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
241 yes / 75 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
46 yes / 268 no · 71 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
96 yes / 221 no · 71 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
37 yes / 279 no · 71 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
97 yes / 209 no · 70 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 314 no · 71 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Yordan Alvarez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.