Nick Loftin

3B · RHB · RHP · KCR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

MIN

Starter

Bailey Ober (RHP)

Stadium

Kauffman Stadium

Model HR%

13.7%

Model Hits%

73.2%

Model K%

37.1%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+8.9% edgemodel 73% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Slider (17% usage, .423 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	73%	+8.9%	60%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	14%	+3.7%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Nick Loftin, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	10-3	77%	+60.2%
A	6-4	60%	+7.6%
B	2-4	33%	+167.0%

Combined 18-11 · n=29 · ROI +64.2% · avg CLV +0.7 pts · beat close 59%

Matchup

Nick Loftin (RHB) vs Bailey Ober RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Bailey Ober RHP · season · 94.4 IP · 406 BF

BAA

.253

wOBA

.355

SLG

.443

ISO

.189

WHIP

1.33

HR/9

1.53

BB%

7.6%

16.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.3%

HH%

36.6%

FB%

41.7%

HR/FB%

16.3%

Nick Loftin hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	63-256	.246	.387	.141	5	11.1%	16.0%
vs RHP	33-152	.217	.382	.164	4	10.1%	16.4%

Pitch-type matchup

Bailey Ober's arsenal × how Nick Loftin hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Bailey Ober throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	35%	89.8	16%	.377
Changeup	31%	83.1	26%	.329
TOPSlider	17%	83.3	19%	.354
Sweeper	10%	77.9	36%	.353
Curveball	4%	74.6	20%	.630
Sinker	3%	89.8	5%	.521

Nick Loftin vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	314	5%	.317	89.7
Changeup	115	31%	.170	88.7
TOPSlider	137	23%	.423	87.1
Sweeper	94	32%	.334	81.1
Curveball	35	40%	.419	82.3
Sinker	205	10%	.228	83.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Our model73% OVER+8.9% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7

Plate Appearancesavg 3.7

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.3

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.7

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	11%	—	+375	+1.1	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	73%	+8.9%	-180	+2.9	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	A	29%	+5.4%	+300	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-1.6%	+1300	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	14%	+3.7%	+900	+3.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+220	+5.7	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	54%	—	+105	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	14%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	37%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	37%	—	+170	-1.4	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=288 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	63-256	.246	.387	.141	19	1	5	32	16.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	30-104	.288	.394	.106	6	1	1	15	15.4%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	33-152	.217	.382	.164	13	0	4	17	16.4%
Last 15 days recent form	10-38	.263	.421	.158	3	0	1	5	21.1%
vs Bailey Ober tonight's starting pitcher	3-12	.250	.417	.167	2	0	0	1	8.3%
vs MIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	10-40	.250	.375	.125	5	0	0	7	7.5%
@ Kauffman Stadium tonight's stadium	1906-6901	.276	.357	.081	312	105	13	792	13.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.293

wOBA0.316

delta+0.023 hot

n=286 PA

Spray chart

362 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play362

HR rate2.5%

Hard-hit (95+)31%

Avg exit velo86.2 mph

Ground ball41%

Line drive24%

Fly ball27%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-08-04	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-08-02	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-08-01	4	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B
2026-07-31	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-1 · 1 K
2026-07-30	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-07-29	4	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
2026-07-28	4	1	0	0	2	0	1-for-2 · 2 BB
2026-07-26	5	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 R · 2 K
2026-07-25	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Nick Loftin across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.