← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +8.0% edge model 67% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Sinker (30% usage, .369 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 67% +8.0% 70% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 12% +3.9% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jakob Marsee, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 6-3 67% +22.3% A 3-5 38% -41.7% B 1-5 17% -71.0%
Combined 10-13 · n=23 · ROI -24.3% · avg CLV +0.3 pts · beat close 38%
Matchup Jakob Marsee (LHB) vs Kumar Rocker RHP favors batter favors pitcher Kumar Rocker RHP · season · 74.2 IP · 319 BF
Jakob Marsee hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 54-272 .199 .301 .103 4 15.0% 27.9% vs RHP 45-212 .212 .307 .094 3 13.5% 26.4%
Pitch-type matchup Kumar Rocker's arsenal × how Jakob Marsee hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Kumar Rocker throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Sinker30% 95.1 8% .371 TOP Slider24% 83.9 38% .363 Cutter 17% 90.2 31% .433 Four-Seam 16% 95.7 15% .415 Changeup 6% 89.3 24% .502 Curveball 6% 77.8 52% .647 Pitchout 0% 90.8 — —
Jakob Marsee vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Sinker272 14% .369 89.6 TOP Slider216 25% .412 88.9 Cutter 127 10% .301 83.2 Four-Seam 654 9% .297 86.9 Changeup 191 34% .393 86.4 Curveball 96 9% .366 86.4 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles50% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks30% RBIs30% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases20%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 0.8
Our model 67% OVER +8.0% edge A
1 vARI 06-11 0 @PIT 06-12 1 @PIT 06-13 0 @PIT 06-14 1 @PHI 06-15 1 @PHI 06-16 1 @PHI 06-17 1 vSFG 06-19 2 vSFG 06-20 0 vSFG 06-21
L5 80% 4/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 70% 14/20 2026 53% 44/83 2025 68% 38/56
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.1 Plate Appearances avg 4.1
3 5 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 Total Bases avg 1.3
1 0 2 0 1 1 4 1 3 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.3
0 3 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 8% — +450 -2.9 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 67% +8.0% -145 -4.1 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 25% +1.8% +340 -3.6 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 4% -1.6% +1750 -2.9 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 12% +3.9% +1102 -1.2 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 8% — +205 +3.5 — 1.5 — PASS 6% — +600 +4.3 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 51% — +115 -2.3 — 1.5 — PASS 12% — +700 -1.8 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — PASS 38% — +170 -1.1 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -145 +340 +1750 +1102
Price legs
Splits Career n=320 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
54-272 .199 .301 .103 10 3 4 48 27.9% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
9-60 .150 .283 .133 1 2 1 15 33.3% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
45-212 .212 .307 .094 9 1 3 33 26.4% Last 15 days
recent form
11-44 .250 .386 .136 3 0 1 6 31.8% vs TEX
tonight's opponent (full roster)
2-7 .286 .286 .000 0 0 0 0 14.3% @ loanDepot park
tonight's stadium
837-3165 .264 .347 .082 260 0 0 605 18.7%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.317
wOBA 0.318
delta +0.001 hot
n=319 PA
Spray chart 359 balls in play since 2025 · wind 9 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Kumar Rocker's mix Balls in play 359
HR rate 2.5%
Hard-hit (95+) 37%
Avg exit velo 85.6 mph
Ground ball 40%
Line drive 27%
Fly ball 23%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-06-20 5 2 1 0 0 0 1 2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-19 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-3 · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-17 5 1 0 0 1 0 2 1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 2 K 2026-06-16 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-15 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-14 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-13 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-12 5 0 0 0 0 1 3 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 3 K 2026-06-11 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-2 · 1 RBI · 1 SB · 1 BB
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jakob Marsee across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
