← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +7.8% edge model 69% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Cutter (20% usage, .377 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 69% +7.8% 70% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 10% +3.2% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Luke Keaschall, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-2 50% -13.7% A 2-1 67% +5.0% B 3-2 60% +271.0%
Combined 7-5 · n=12 · ROI +109.6% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Luke Keaschall (RHB) vs Eric Lauer LHP favors batter favors pitcher Eric Lauer LHP · season · 58.4 IP · 251 BF
Luke Keaschall hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 73-280 .261 .357 .096 4 10.8% 15.7% vs LHP 23-89 .258 .337 .079 1 11.0% 14.6%
Pitch-type matchup Eric Lauer's arsenal × how Luke Keaschall hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Eric Lauer throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 46% 91.4 16% .386 TOP Cutter20% 86.4 22% .483 Curveball 14% 75.1 22% .349 Slider 11% 83.0 22% .283 Changeup 10% 84.3 15% .390 Sinker 0% 91.9 — —
Luke Keaschall vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 406 10% .326 88.2 TOP Cutter161 15% .377 89.7 Curveball 91 13% .216 88.0 Slider 248 21% .279 81.2 Changeup 196 26% .312 83.3 Sinker 323 9% .311 86.4
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases50% Home Runs10% Singles50% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks50% RBIs20% Runs Scored70% Hits + Runs + RBIs80% Stolen Bases10%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 69% OVER +7.8% edge A
1 @DET 06-10 0 vSTL 06-12 1 vSTL 06-13 1 vSTL 06-14 0 @TEX 06-15 2 @TEX 06-16 2 @TEX 06-18 1 @ARI 06-19 3 @ARI 06-20 0 @ARI 06-21
L5 80% 4/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 65% 13/20 2026 69% 63/91 2025 82% 40/49
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.2 Plate Appearances avg 4.2
4 4 4 4 3 5 4 4 6 4 Total Bases avg 1.6
1 0 4 2 0 3 2 1 3 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
1 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 11% — +400 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 69% +7.8% -159 -1.8 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 26% +2.1% +320 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -1.9% +1400 -0.5 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 10% +3.2% +1344 -1.7 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 7% — +267 +0.2 — 1.5 — PASS 4% — +800 +1.1 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 54% — +115 -1.1 — 1.5 — PASS 11% — +700 -1.8 —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 30% — -137 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — B 38% — +190 -2.7 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -159 +320 +1400 +1344
Price legs
Splits Career n=314 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
73-280 .261 .357 .096 13 1 4 34 15.7% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
23-89 .258 .337 .079 4 0 1 11 14.6% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
50-191 .262 .366 .105 9 1 3 23 16.2% Last 15 days
recent form
14-38 .368 .500 .132 2 0 1 8 15.8% vs Eric Lauer
tonight's starting pitcher
1-6 .167 .667 .500 0 0 1 1 16.7% vs LAD
tonight's opponent (full roster)
1-6 .167 .667 .500 0 0 1 1 16.7% @ Target Field
tonight's stadium
643-3116 .206 .361 .154 124 0 119 419 15.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.292
wOBA 0.327
delta +0.035 hot
n=311 PA
Spray chart 386 balls in play since 2025 · wind 3 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Eric Lauer's mix Balls in play 386
HR rate 2.1%
Hard-hit (95+) 29%
Avg exit velo 85.2 mph
Ground ball 41%
Line drive 27%
Fly ball 25%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-06-20 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 3-for-6 · 3 R 2026-06-19 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-18 4 2 0 0 0 2 0 2-for-2 · 1 R · 1 SB · 2 BB 2026-06-16 5 2 1 0 0 1 1 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-15 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-14 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 BB 2026-06-13 4 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-12 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-10 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Luke Keaschall across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
