← BACK TO SLATE
Paul Goldschmidt
1B · RHB · RHP · NYY
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Paul Goldschmidt, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-0 | 100% | +117.5% |
| A | 4-7 | 36% | -29.6% |
| B | 8-6 | 57% | +150.7% |
Combined 18-13 · n=31 · ROI +80.3% · avg CLV -2.1 pts · beat close 28%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7Plate Appearancesavg 3.7
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.6
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.4
Splits
Career n=335 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.308
wOBA0.314
delta+0.006 hot
n=335 PA
Spray chart
632 balls in play since 2025Balls in play632
HR rate4.1%
Hard-hit (95+)39%
Avg exit velo88.1 mph
Ground ball40%
Line drive24%
Fly ball29%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-20
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+34%
75 yes / 102 no · 23 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−25%
137 yes / 39 no · 23 HRs
// 5 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−16%
22 yes / 155 no · 23 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−11%
20 yes / 157 no · 23 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−9%
51 yes / 126 no · 23 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
94 yes / 83 no · 23 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
8 yes / 168 no · 23 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Paul Goldschmidt across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.