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Paul Goldschmidt
1B · RHB · RHP · NYY
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 1.5+9.6% edgemodel 74% · grade S
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Paul Goldschmidt, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 0-3 | 0% | -100.0% |
| A | 5-2 | 71% | +27.8% |
| B | 0-5 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 5-10 · n=15 · ROI -40.4% · avg CLV -1.3 pts · beat close 20%
Matchup
Paul Goldschmidt (RHB) vs Framber Valdez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Framber Valdez's arsenal × how Paul Goldschmidt hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 0.9
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 2.5
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=212 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-06-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.319
wOBA0.326
delta+0.007 hot
n=212 PA
Spray chart
556 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph cross-windBalls in play556
HR rate4.0%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo88.9 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive26%
Fly ball29%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-20
// TONIGHT
1 / 2FAVORABLE
Mixed, leaning favorable
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+34%
75 yes / 102 no · 23 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−25%
137 yes / 39 no · 23 HRs
// 5 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−16%
22 yes / 155 no · 23 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−11%
20 yes / 157 no · 23 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−9%
51 yes / 126 no · 23 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
94 yes / 83 no · 23 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
8 yes / 168 no · 23 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Paul Goldschmidt across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.