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Freddie Freeman
1B · LHB · RHP · LAD
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 1.5+5.8% edgemodel 71% · grade A
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Freddie Freeman, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | — | — | — |
| A | 1-0 | 100% | +50.0% |
| B | 3-2 | 60% | -6.0% |
Combined 4-2 · n=6 · ROI +3.3% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Freddie Freeman (LHB) vs Zebby Matthews RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Zebby Matthews's arsenal × how Freddie Freeman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=345 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.351
wOBA0.354
delta+0.003 hot
n=345 PA
Spray chart
736 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph cross-windBalls in play736
HR rate5.3%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo90.1 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive25%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-22.2%significant
n=439 games · 6/55 HR when active
-16.9%small sample
n=437 games · 29/212 HR when active
-16.7%small sample
n=413 games · 8/63 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
// TONIGHT
2 / 3FAVORABLE
Mixed, leaning favorable
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- -25% HR rate when playing at home.
- -22% HR rate when ≥1 career hr vs this pitcher.
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
1.59× HR rate
43 yes / 364 no · 64 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+43%
51 yes / 385 no · 67 HRs
Playing at home
−25%
236 yes / 203 no · 68 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−22%
55 yes / 384 no · 68 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−20%
279 yes / 160 no · 68 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+20%
298 yes / 136 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−17%
212 yes / 225 no · 67 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−17%
63 yes / 350 no · 66 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+15%
2 yes / 405 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−15%
56 yes / 378 no · 67 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+11%
94 yes / 341 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+10%
95 yes / 340 no · 67 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−10%
204 yes / 230 no · 68 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−9%
31 yes / 405 no · 67 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−9%
139 yes / 300 no · 68 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−7%
229 yes / 199 no · 66 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+5%
214 yes / 86 no · 44 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
167 yes / 272 no · 68 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
240 yes / 199 no · 68 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
95 yes / 342 no · 67 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
21 yes / 417 no · 68 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
344 yes / 94 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
46 yes / 335 no · 64 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
7 yes / 432 no · 68 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
199 yes / 233 no · 67 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 434 no · 67 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 439 no · 68 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Freddie Freeman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.