Salvador Perez

C · RHB · RHP · KCR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

Starter

Drew Rasmussen (RHP)

Stadium

Tropicana Field

Model HR%

14.8%

Model Hits%

67.6%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+5.5% edgemodel 68% · grade A

Why: Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%): +40.8% lift over 218 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (33% usage, .474 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	68%	+5.5%	70%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	15%	+1.1%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Salvador Perez, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	0-2	0%	-100.0%
A	4-3	57%	+76.2%
B	0-4	0%	-100.0%

Combined 4-9 · n=13 · ROI -5.1% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 29%

Matchup

Salvador Perez (RHB) vs Drew Rasmussen RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Drew Rasmussen RHP · season · 78.4 IP · 337 BF

BAA

.212

wOBA

.268

SLG

.347

ISO

.134

WHIP

1.08

HR/9

1.38

BB%

5.0%

25.8%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.7%

HH%

35.5%

FB%

27.9%

HR/FB%

25.0%

Salvador Perez hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	62-292	.212	.366	.154	12	5.5%	19.5%
vs RHP	42-218	.193	.321	.128	8	4.4%	20.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Drew Rasmussen's arsenal × how Salvador Perez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Drew Rasmussen throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	33%	95.8	19%	.373
TOPCutter	32%	90.3	24%	.310
TOPSinker	22%	95.4	11%	.325
Curveball	4%	80.6	18%	.390
Sweeper	4%	84.7	20%	.475
Changeup	4%	89.7	48%	.324
Slider	0%	84.6	0%	.383

Salvador Perez vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	890	23%	.474	92.9
TOPCutter	268	24%	.372	89.1
TOPSinker	456	10%	.420	89.7
Curveball	187	26%	.388	86.8
Sweeper	413	33%	.400	86.6
Changeup	291	24%	.277	88.9
Slider	516	33%	.394	88.9

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.1

Our model68% OVER+5.5% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5

Plate Appearancesavg 4.5

Hitsavg 1.1

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.6

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.0

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	7%	—	+490	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	68%	+5.5%	-164	+0.4	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	25%	+1.6%	+300	+0.0	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-3.1%	+1200	+0.0	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	15%	+1.1%	+633	+0.8	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	9%	—	+200	+0.5	—
1.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+700	-1.8	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	52%	—	+110	+0.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+600	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	PASS	39%	—	+165	-0.7	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=309 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-06-19

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	62-292	.212	.366	.154	9	12	17	19.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	20-74	.270	.500	.230	5	4	7	17.6%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	42-218	.193	.321	.128	4	8	10	20.2%
Last 15 days recent form	10-44	.227	.341	.114	2	1	0	15.9%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.330

wOBA0.304

delta−0.026 due

n=309 PA

Spray chart

726 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play726

HR rate5.9%

Hard-hit (95+)44%

Avg exit velo89.8 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive24%

Fly ball32%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+40.8%significant

n=381 games · 40/218 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+26.7%significant

n=389 games · 15/74 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

-13.9%small sample

n=389 games · 11/81 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

4 / 7FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

+41% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
-36% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).
-27% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).

Rested (2+ days off)

1.51× HR rate

31 yes / 357 no · 62 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+42%

152 yes / 229 no · 60 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+41%

218 yes / 163 no · 60 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

0.64× HR rate

58 yes / 204 no · 40 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+27%

74 yes / 315 no · 62 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−27%

57 yes / 330 no · 62 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+24%

42 yes / 345 no · 62 HRs

Playing at home

−21%

196 yes / 193 no · 62 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+20%

78 yes / 301 no · 61 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+15%

152 yes / 232 no · 62 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+15%

82 yes / 307 no · 62 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−15%

122 yes / 267 no · 62 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−14%

81 yes / 308 no · 62 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+12%

372 yes / 17 no · 62 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−10%

249 yes / 138 no · 62 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−10%

10 yes / 379 no · 62 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+10%

50 yes / 339 no · 62 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−9%

155 yes / 234 no · 62 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−8%

191 yes / 198 no · 62 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−7%

2 yes / 377 no · 61 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−7%

49 yes / 315 no · 57 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

56 yes / 277 no · 50 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

neutral

52 yes / 335 no · 62 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

neutral

296 yes / 92 no · 62 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

219 yes / 170 no · 62 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 387 no · 62 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 389 no · 62 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	5	1	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-19	4	1	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B
2026-06-18	5	3	1	1	0	3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R
2026-06-17	5	1	0	0	0	1-for-5
2026-06-16	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-06-15	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-14	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-13	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-12	5	3	0	0	0	3-for-5 · 2 R
2026-06-10	5	0	0	0	2	0-for-5 · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Salvador Perez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.