Salvador Perez

DH · RHB · RHP · KCR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

PIT

Starter

Lake Bachar (RHP)

Stadium

PNC Park

Model HR%

16.2%

Model Hits%

63.7%

Model K%

63.2%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+4.1% edgemodel 16% · grade B

Why: NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%): -26.9% lift over 124 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (36% usage, .474 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	16%	+4.1%	0%	CAUTION
Hits	UNDER 0.5	36%	+3.6%	60%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Salvador Perez, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	13-2	87%	+93.3%
A	8-8	50%	+107.8%
B	8-8	50%	-23.6%

Combined 29-18 · n=47 · ROI +58.4% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 46%

Matchup

Salvador Perez (RHB) vs Lake Bachar RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Lake Bachar RHP · season · 79.1 IP · 340 BF

BAA

.190

wOBA

.308

SLG

.347

ISO

.157

WHIP

1.23

HR/9

1.48

BB%

11.8%

25.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.8%

HH%

32.9%

FB%

41.9%

HR/FB%

18.6%

Salvador Perez hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	129-573	.225	.380	.155	21	5.9%	20.1%
vs RHP	86-414	.208	.355	.147	16	5.5%	20.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Lake Bachar's arsenal × how Salvador Perez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Lake Bachar throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	36%	94.8	21%	.423
TOPSweeper	25%	86.4	28%	.405
TOPSlider	24%	89.5	41%	.326
TOPSplitter	13%	83.7	33%	.265
Curveball	2%	85.5	33%	.417

Salvador Perez vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	890	23%	.474	92.9
TOPSweeper	413	33%	.400	86.6
TOPSlider	516	33%	.394	88.9
TOPSplitter	75	34%	.364	91.4
Curveball	187	26%	.388	86.8

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.5

Our model36% UNDER+3.6% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.5

Plate Appearancesavg 3.5

Hitsavg 0.5

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 0.5

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.6

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	8%	—	+400	-0.4	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	B	36%	+3.6%	+206	-2.5	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	24%	-1.2%	+300	-1.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	16%	+4.1%	+726	+0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+177	+5.1	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+475	+3.1	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	44%	—	-105	+2.7	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+500	+4.2	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	63%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	33%	—	+151	+2.4	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=609 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	129-573	.225	.380	.155	24	1	21	36	20.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	43-159	.270	.447	.176	13	0	5	12	19.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	86-414	.208	.355	.147	11	1	16	24	20.3%
Last 15 days recent form	9-41	.220	.317	.098	1	0	1	3	14.6%
vs PIT tonight's opponent (full roster)	6-29	.207	.310	.103	0	0	1	0	34.5%
@ PNC Park tonight's stadium	0-596	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	50.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.304

wOBA0.281

delta−0.023 due

n=609 PA

Spray chart

946 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph cross-wind

Balls in play946

HR rate5.5%

Hard-hit (95+)44%

Avg exit velo89.6 mph

Ground ball37%

Line drive24%

Fly ball32%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

-26.9%significant

n=461 games · 47/337 HR when active

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

-18.5%small sample

n=463 games · 1/14 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+18.1%small sample

n=463 games · 17/93 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

1 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY

Mixed signals tonight

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+47% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
−27% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
−27% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight

+47%

172 yes / 282 no · 70 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+45%

34 yes / 428 no · 72 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

0.63× HR rate

78 yes / 247 no · 50 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight

−27%

337 yes / 124 no · 72 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight

−27%

67 yes / 394 no · 72 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+25%

48 yes / 413 no · 72 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+21%

125 yes / 328 no · 71 HRs

// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+19%

428 yes / 35 no · 72 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−19%

14 yes / 449 no · 72 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+18%

93 yes / 370 no · 72 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−13%

217 yes / 246 no · 72 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−13%

96 yes / 367 no · 72 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−10%

134 yes / 329 no · 72 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+10%

179 yes / 279 no · 72 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−10%

93 yes / 370 no · 72 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−9%

73 yes / 367 no · 67 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−8%

66 yes / 326 no · 59 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+7%

359 yes / 103 no · 72 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−7%

63 yes / 398 no · 72 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−7%

2 yes / 451 no · 71 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

neutral

212 yes / 251 no · 72 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

263 yes / 200 no · 72 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

230 yes / 233 no · 72 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

256 yes / 197 no · 70 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

neutral

63 yes / 400 no · 72 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 461 no · 72 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 463 no · 72 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	1	0	0	1	0-for-1 · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-17	3	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-09-16	5	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 K
2026-09-15	1	1	0	0	1-for-1
2026-09-13	4	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-11	4	2	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-09-09	4	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-09-08	5	1	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Salvador Perez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.