Salvador Perez

DH · RHB · RHP · KCR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

MIN

Starter

Bailey Ober (RHP)

Stadium

Kauffman Stadium

Model HR%

29.0%

Model Hits%

73.4%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+12.3% edgemodel 29% · grade S

Why: NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%): -29.4% lift over 122 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (35% usage, .474 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	29%	+12.3%	20%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	73%	+7.7%	70%	STRONG

Matchup

Salvador Perez (RHB) vs Bailey Ober RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Bailey Ober RHP · season · 94.4 IP · 406 BF

BAA

.253

wOBA

.355

SLG

.443

ISO

.189

WHIP

1.33

HR/9

1.53

BB%

7.6%

16.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.3%

HH%

36.6%

FB%

41.7%

HR/FB%

16.3%

Salvador Perez hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	93-427	.218	.391	.173	18	6.2%	22.0%
vs RHP	62-315	.197	.352	.156	13	5.7%	22.5%

Pitch-type matchup

Bailey Ober's arsenal × how Salvador Perez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Bailey Ober throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	35%	89.8	16%	.377
Changeup	31%	83.1	26%	.329
TOPSlider	17%	83.3	19%	.354
Sweeper	10%	77.9	36%	.353
Curveball	4%	74.6	20%	.630
Sinker	3%	89.8	5%	.521

Salvador Perez vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	890	23%	.474	92.9
Changeup	291	24%	.277	88.9
TOPSlider	516	33%	.394	88.9
Sweeper	413	33%	.400	86.6
Curveball	187	26%	.388	86.8
Sinker	456	10%	.420	89.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.0

Our model73% OVER+7.7% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 1.0

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 2.0

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+375	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	73%	+7.7%	-192	+0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	29%	+1.6%	+240	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-2.5%	+1100	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	29%	+12.3%	+498	-0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	20%	—	+177	-0.1	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	S	18%	—	+475	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	43%	—	+110	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	B	46%	—	+140	+0.5	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=455 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	93-427	.218	.391	.173	18	1	18	28	22.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	31-112	.277	.500	.223	10	0	5	9	20.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	62-315	.197	.352	.156	8	1	13	19	22.5%
Last 15 days recent form	12-48	.250	.542	.292	3	1	3	3	22.9%
vs Bailey Ober tonight's starting pitcher	6-27	.222	.481	.259	1	0	2	1	33.3%
vs MIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	33-118	.280	.492	.212	8	1	5	8	18.6%
@ Kauffman Stadium tonight's stadium	2513-10013	.251	.588	.337	683	0	896	760	23.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.310

wOBA0.285

delta−0.025 due

n=455 PA

Spray chart

824 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play824

HR rate5.9%

Hard-hit (95+)44%

Avg exit velo89.8 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive24%

Fly ball32%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

-29.4%significant

n=426 games · 43/304 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+34.8%significant

n=428 games · 19/89 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

-19.2%small sample

n=428 games · 12/93 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04

// TONIGHT

0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning against

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

−29% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+46%

162 yes / 257 no · 67 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+44%

33 yes / 394 no · 69 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+35%

89 yes / 339 no · 69 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−31%

69 yes / 230 no · 47 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight

−29%

304 yes / 122 no · 69 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+27%

45 yes / 381 no · 69 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+27%

105 yes / 313 no · 68 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−26%

64 yes / 362 no · 69 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−19%

93 yes / 335 no · 69 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−15%

122 yes / 306 no · 69 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+15%

396 yes / 32 no · 69 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−14%

205 yes / 223 no · 69 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+14%

58 yes / 368 no · 69 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+14%

235 yes / 184 no · 67 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−13%

11 yes / 417 no · 69 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+9%

56 yes / 372 no · 69 HRs

Playing at home

−8%

209 yes / 219 no · 69 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+8%

169 yes / 254 no · 69 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−7%

63 yes / 302 no · 57 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−7%

2 yes / 416 no · 68 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−6%

194 yes / 234 no · 69 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

neutral

330 yes / 97 no · 69 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

neutral

60 yes / 344 no · 64 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

241 yes / 187 no · 69 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

neutral

89 yes / 339 no · 69 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 428 no · 69 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 426 no · 69 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-08-04	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
2026-08-02	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 K
2026-08-01	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-31	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-30	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-29	5	2	0	1	0	0	3	2-for-5 · 1 3B · 1 R · 3 K
2026-07-28	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-07-26	5	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-25	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Salvador Perez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.