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Marcell Ozuna
DH · RHB · RHP · PIT
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Marcell Ozuna, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 0-2 | 0% | -100.0% |
| A | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | 2-0 | 100% | +70.1% |
Combined 2-3 · n=5 · ROI -32.0% · avg CLV +2.2 pts · beat close 100%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.5Plate Appearancesavg 3.5
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=299 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.295
wOBA0.288
delta−0.007 due
n=299 PA
Spray chart
550 balls in play since 2025Balls in play550
HR rate5.6%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo89.2 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive24%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-37.2%significant
n=378 games · 6/65 HR when active
+27.1%significant
n=386 games · 43/230 HR when active
+21.8%significant
n=398 games · 17/82 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
3rd time through order vs starter
1.56× HR rate
172 yes / 227 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
0.63× HR rate
65 yes / 313 no · 65 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−32%
148 yes / 242 no · 68 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+30%
81 yes / 306 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+27%
230 yes / 156 no · 65 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+22%
82 yes / 316 no · 68 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−20%
35 yes / 363 no · 68 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+24%
14 yes / 373 no · 67 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+18%
276 yes / 122 no · 68 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−13%
50 yes / 349 no · 68 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−13%
94 yes / 305 no · 68 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+12%
160 yes / 233 no · 66 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+12%
169 yes / 230 no · 68 HRs
Playing at home
+12%
210 yes / 189 no · 68 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+12%
83 yes / 203 no · 50 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−11%
10 yes / 389 no · 68 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−10%
85 yes / 314 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+9%
56 yes / 298 no · 57 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−8%
59 yes / 340 no · 68 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−7%
113 yes / 286 no · 68 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+7%
245 yes / 154 no · 68 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−6%
87 yes / 312 no · 68 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 398 no · 68 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
179 yes / 220 no · 68 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
265 yes / 132 no · 68 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
65 yes / 332 no · 68 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 397 no · 68 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Marcell Ozuna across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.