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Marcell Ozuna
DH · RHB · RHP · PIT
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Marcell Ozuna, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-1 | 67% | +13.4% |
| A | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | 1-0 | 100% | +450.0% |
Combined 3-2 · n=5 · ROI +78.0% · avg CLV +2.6 pts · beat close 80%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.3
Walksavg 0.1
Splits
Career n=236 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-06-19
xStats luck
xwOBA0.304
wOBA0.286
delta−0.018 due
n=236 PA
Spray chart
512 balls in play since 2025Balls in play512
HR rate5.7%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo89.4 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive24%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-34.5%significant
n=361 games · 6/61 HR when active
+33.3%significant
n=369 games · 43/223 HR when active
+21.8%significant
n=381 games · 17/81 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-23
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
3rd time through order vs starter
1.58× HR rate
164 yes / 218 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
0.66× HR rate
61 yes / 300 no · 63 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+33%
223 yes / 146 no · 63 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−33%
153 yes / 220 no · 66 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+28%
76 yes / 294 no · 65 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+22%
81 yes / 300 no · 66 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+26%
13 yes / 357 no · 65 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−19%
27 yes / 354 no · 66 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+16%
152 yes / 230 no · 66 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−16%
83 yes / 299 no · 66 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+14%
271 yes / 110 no · 66 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+13%
157 yes / 219 no · 64 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−12%
10 yes / 372 no · 66 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−11%
48 yes / 334 no · 66 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−9%
113 yes / 269 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+9%
56 yes / 284 no · 55 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+9%
73 yes / 198 no · 48 HRs
Playing at home
+8%
200 yes / 182 no · 66 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+6%
234 yes / 144 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−6%
86 yes / 296 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
180 yes / 202 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
54 yes / 324 no · 66 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 381 no · 66 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
91 yes / 291 no · 66 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
53 yes / 329 no · 66 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
243 yes / 139 no · 66 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 378 no · 66 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Marcell Ozuna across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.