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Marcus Semien
2B · RHB · RHP · NYM
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 1.5+5.8% edgemodel 27% · grade A
Why: NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%): -43.3% lift over 371 games.
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Marcus Semien, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 23-10 | 70% | +95.3% |
| A | 13-12 | 52% | +20.6% |
| B | 4-14 | 22% | -5.3% |
Combined 40-36 · n=76 · ROI +46.9% · avg CLV -0.8 pts · beat close 45%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.2
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-09-17 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=537 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.293
wOBA0.278
delta−0.015 due
n=534 PA
Spray chart
785 balls in play since 2025Balls in play785
HR rate3.9%
Hard-hit (95+)35%
Avg exit velo87.8 mph
Ground ball35%
Line drive23%
Fly ball33%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-43.3%significant
n=449 games · 5/78 HR when active
-25.7%significant
n=449 games · 7/75 HR when active
-22.1%significant
n=452 games · 5/53 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-18
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
0.57× HR rate
78 yes / 371 no · 60 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+32%
194 yes / 258 no · 61 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+27%
356 yes / 95 no · 61 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−26%
75 yes / 374 no · 60 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−24%
107 yes / 345 no · 61 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−22%
53 yes / 399 no · 61 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−32%
13 yes / 438 no · 61 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−16%
81 yes / 371 no · 61 HRs
Playing at home
−16%
229 yes / 223 no · 61 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+15%
50 yes / 337 no · 52 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−14%
227 yes / 225 no · 61 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+14%
133 yes / 303 no · 59 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−13%
70 yes / 347 no · 56 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−12%
254 yes / 198 no · 61 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+12%
83 yes / 240 no · 42 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−11%
123 yes / 329 no · 61 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−11%
199 yes / 252 no · 61 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−10%
3 yes / 433 no · 59 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−7%
119 yes / 332 no · 61 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+7%
245 yes / 202 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+5%
232 yes / 207 no · 59 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
318 yes / 131 no · 60 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
85 yes / 365 no · 60 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
181 yes / 263 no · 60 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 452 no · 61 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 452 no · 61 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 449 no · 60 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Marcus Semien across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.