← BACK TO SLATE
George Springer
DH · RHB · RHP · TOR
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on George Springer, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-6 | 63% | +24.5% |
| A | 9-5 | 64% | +5.2% |
| B | 8-10 | 44% | -2.2% |
Combined 27-21 · n=48 · ROI +8.9% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 39%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=512 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.316
wOBA0.351
delta+0.035 hot
n=512 PA
Spray chart
819 balls in play since 2025Balls in play819
HR rate6.7%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo89.3 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive24%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+27.5%significant
n=440 games · 46/256 HR when active
+25.9%significant
n=457 games · 14/67 HR when active
+18.9%small sample
n=456 games · 15/77 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
3rd time through order vs starter
+49%
316 yes / 141 no · 74 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+28%
55 yes / 402 no · 74 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+27%
256 yes / 184 no · 71 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+26%
67 yes / 390 no · 74 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+25%
82 yes / 223 no · 52 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+19%
77 yes / 379 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−14%
72 yes / 303 no · 62 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+14%
13 yes / 444 no · 74 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−14%
245 yes / 207 no · 74 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−13%
79 yes / 377 no · 74 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−13%
4 yes / 424 no · 68 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+12%
82 yes / 375 no · 74 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−12%
305 yes / 151 no · 74 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+12%
25 yes / 431 no · 74 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−12%
137 yes / 320 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−11%
76 yes / 353 no · 71 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
−10%
3 yes / 454 no · 74 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−9%
128 yes / 329 no · 74 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+9%
171 yes / 273 no · 71 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−6%
68 yes / 360 no · 68 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−5%
186 yes / 271 no · 74 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 455 no · 74 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
348 yes / 108 no · 74 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
72 yes / 385 no · 74 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
60 yes / 397 no · 74 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
243 yes / 214 no · 74 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
198 yes / 259 no · 74 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to George Springer across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.