Mike Trout

CF · RHB · RHP · LAA

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

BAL

Starter

Trevor Rogers (LHP)

Stadium

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Model HR%

20.3%

Model Hits%

68.4%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Mike Trout, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	0-2	0%	-100.0%
A	—	—	—
B	1-3	25%	-61.5%

Combined 1-5 · n=6 · ROI -74.3% · avg CLV -8.6 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Mike Trout (RHB) vs Trevor Rogers LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Trevor Rogers LHP · season · 113.3 IP · 487 BF

BAA

.253

wOBA

.316

SLG

.388

ISO

.134

WHIP

1.31

HR/9

0.79

BB%

6.8%

19.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.0%

HH%

41.7%

FB%

37.8%

HR/FB%

8.8%

Mike Trout hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	87-351	.248	.453	.205	18	19.5%	30.8%
vs LHP	28-91	.308	.495	.187	4	20.2%	27.5%

Pitch-type matchup

Trevor Rogers's arsenal × how Mike Trout hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Trevor Rogers throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	41%	93.0	21%	.353
TOPChangeup	24%	86.5	24%	.359
TOPSinker	14%	92.8	10%	.403
TOPCutter	12%	81.6	36%	.321
Sweeper	8%	78.2	38%	.270

Mike Trout vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1626	22%	.483	91.9
TOPChangeup	247	40%	.507	90.0
TOPSinker	450	8%	.468	92.0
TOPCutter	299	19%	.474	89.5
Sweeper	298	30%	.556	90.6

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.2

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 1.2

Singlesavg 1.0

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.4

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 1.1

Walksavg 0.5

Splits

Career n=436 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-02

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	87-351	.248	.453	.205	18	18	85	30.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	28-91	.308	.495	.187	5	4	23	27.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	59-260	.227	.438	.212	13	14	62	31.9%
Last 15 days recent form	12-36	.333	.389	.056	2	0	6	22.2%
vs BAL tonight's opponent (full roster)	3-19	.158	.632	.474	0	3	4	52.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.372

wOBA0.360

delta−0.012 due

n=435 PA

Spray chart

539 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph blowing in

Balls in play539

HR rate8.3%

Hard-hit (95+)50%

Avg exit velo90.7 mph

Ground ball35%

Line drive26%

Fly ball31%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-33.5%significant

n=322 games · 5/52 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+42.0%significant

n=345 games · 16/67 HR when active

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+22.0%significant

n=344 games · 46/257 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04

// TONIGHT

2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY

Slight favorable lean

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+58% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
−25% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
+22% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

1.69× HR rate

99 yes / 246 no · 58 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

1.58× HR rate

264 yes / 80 no · 58 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+42%

67 yes / 278 no · 58 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−34%

52 yes / 270 no · 56 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+33%

46 yes / 298 no · 58 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−30%

35 yes / 309 no · 58 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+27%

235 yes / 110 no · 58 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight

−25%

140 yes / 205 no · 58 HRs

Playing at home

−25%

177 yes / 168 no · 58 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+23%

44 yes / 287 no · 58 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight

+22%

257 yes / 87 no · 58 HRs

// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Rested (2+ days off)

−18%

13 yes / 331 no · 58 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−16%

55 yes / 176 no · 41 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−16%

152 yes / 189 no · 58 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+11%

19 yes / 326 no · 58 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−10%

135 yes / 210 no · 58 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−10%

3 yes / 328 no · 58 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+10%

187 yes / 150 no · 55 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+9%

48 yes / 250 no · 50 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−9%

146 yes / 194 no · 57 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+8%

164 yes / 180 no · 58 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

−7%

65 yes / 280 no · 58 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

62 yes / 282 no · 58 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

neutral

55 yes / 289 no · 58 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 345 no · 58 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 345 no · 58 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 344 no · 58 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-04	4	1	0	0	3	1-for-4 · 3 K
2026-08-02	4	1	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-08-01	4	2	0	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-31	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-29	4	1	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K
2026-07-28	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-07-27	5	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-26	4	4	1	0	0	4-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-07-25	4	2	0	1	0	2-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-07-24	5	0	0	2	1	0-for-3 · 1 RBI · 2 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Mike Trout across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.