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Mike Trout
CF · RHB · RHP · LAA
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Mike Trout, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | — | — | — |
| A | 1-1 | 50% | -23.0% |
| B | 1-1 | 50% | -40.9% |
Combined 2-2 · n=4 · ROI -31.9% · avg CLV -15.1 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Mike Trout (RHB) vs Kyle Bradish RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Kyle Bradish's arsenal × how Mike Trout hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.8Plate Appearancesavg 4.8
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.1
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.4
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=354 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.372
wOBA0.367
delta−0.005 due
n=353 PA
Spray chart
488 balls in play since 2025Balls in play488
HR rate9.0%
Hard-hit (95+)53%
Avg exit velo91.6 mph
Ground ball35%
Line drive26%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+61.4%significant
n=320 games · 16/57 HR when active
-26.7%significant
n=299 games · 5/45 HR when active
+16.9%small sample
n=279 games · 9/44 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
// TONIGHT
2 / 7FAVORABLE
Mixed, leaning against
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- -31% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
- -27% HR rate when opposing starter coming off >7 days rest.
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
1.68× HR rate
99 yes / 223 no · 55 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
1.64× HR rate
247 yes / 74 no · 55 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
1.61× HR rate
57 yes / 263 no · 55 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−31%
35 yes / 287 no · 55 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−27%
45 yes / 254 no · 53 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+27%
27 yes / 282 no · 55 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+26%
44 yes / 278 no · 55 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+24%
216 yes / 106 no · 55 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−24%
117 yes / 205 no · 55 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−29%
11 yes / 310 no · 55 HRs
Playing at home
−18%
165 yes / 157 no · 55 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+17%
44 yes / 235 no · 47 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+16%
17 yes / 305 no · 55 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−16%
48 yes / 163 no · 38 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−12%
135 yes / 187 no · 55 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−11%
146 yes / 171 no · 54 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−10%
3 yes / 306 no · 55 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−6%
50 yes / 269 no · 55 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
217 yes / 102 no · 55 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
159 yes / 160 no · 55 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
56 yes / 263 no · 55 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
57 yes / 263 no · 55 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
176 yes / 138 no · 52 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
148 yes / 166 no · 55 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 322 no · 55 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 319 no · 55 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 322 no · 55 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Mike Trout across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.