Mike Trout

CF · RHB · RHP · LAA

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

MIN

Starter

Dean Kremer

Stadium

Angel Stadium

Model HR%

27.0%

Model Hits%

65.3%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+8.7% edgemodel 27% · grade S

Why: Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%): +54.7% lift over 69 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (26% usage, .483 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	27%	+8.7%	10%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	65%	+3.2%	60%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Mike Trout, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	1-5	17%	-74.5%
A	1-2	33%	+134.3%
B	1-5	17%	-74.3%

Combined 3-12 · n=15 · ROI -32.7% · avg CLV -2.8 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Mike Trout (RHB) vs Dean Kremer favors batterfavors pitcher

Dean Kremer · season · 78.8 IP · 339 BF

BAA

.232

wOBA

.326

SLG

.458

ISO

.226

WHIP

1.28

HR/9

1.94

BB%

8.6%

24.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.9%

HH%

35.5%

FB%

38.3%

HR/FB%

20.7%

Mike Trout hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	122-507	.241	.418	.178	21	18.2%	32.1%
vs ?HP	84-362	.232	.417	.185	16	18.7%	33.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Dean Kremer's arsenal × how Mike Trout hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Dean Kremer throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	26%	93.3	14%	.394
TOPSplitter	23%	81.9	40%	.296
TOPCutter	19%	86.9	23%	.330
TOPSinker	19%	92.8	8%	.366
TOPCurveball	13%	78.2	21%	.435
Slider	0%	83.5	40%	.090
Pitchout	0%	91.1	—	—

Mike Trout vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1626	22%	.483	91.9
TOPSplitter	61	43%	.380	92.7
TOPCutter	299	19%	.474	89.5
TOPSinker	450	8%	.468	92.0
TOPCurveball	126	33%	.559	85.2
Slider	429	39%	.528	89.0
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Our model65% OVER+3.2% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5

Plate Appearancesavg 4.5

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.1

Walksavg 1.1

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+425	+0.9	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	65%	+3.2%	-164	-0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	23%	-2.0%	+300	-1.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	27%	+8.7%	+447	-13.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	18%	—	+220	+0.9	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	17%	—	+600	-1.1	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	39%	—	+130	+32.3	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+800	-1.4	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	37%	—	+158	-0.2	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=620 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	122-507	.241	.418	.178	27	21	113	32.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	38-145	.262	.421	.159	8	5	30	29.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	84-362	.232	.417	.185	19	16	83	33.1%
Last 15 days recent form	9-41	.220	.390	.171	4	1	11	39.0%
vs Dean Kremer tonight's starting pitcher	1-6	.167	.667	.500	0	1	0	33.3%
vs MIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	13-43	.302	.535	.233	1	3	7	27.9%
@ Angel Stadium tonight's stadium	1003-5639	.178	.236	.058	271	18	1047	33.9%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.381

wOBA0.363

delta−0.018 due

n=619 PA

Spray chart

639 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play639

HR rate7.5%

Hard-hit (95+)48%

Avg exit velo90.4 mph

Ground ball35%

Line drive27%

Fly ball31%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+54.7%significant

n=382 games · 17/69 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-34.8%significant

n=359 games · 5/56 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

-12.7%small sample

n=382 games · 10/73 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY

Slight favorable lean

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+67% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
+45% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
−24% HR rate when playing at home.

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight

1.67× HR rate

110 yes / 272 no · 61 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

1.55× HR rate

69 yes / 313 no · 61 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

+45%

296 yes / 85 no · 61 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

0.65× HR rate

56 yes / 303 no · 59 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−28%

166 yes / 216 no · 61 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+26%

52 yes / 329 no · 61 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−26%

41 yes / 340 no · 61 HRs

Playing at hometonight

−24%

193 yes / 189 no · 61 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

3rd time through order vs starter

+18%

266 yes / 116 no · 61 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−17%

13 yes / 368 no · 61 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−16%

167 yes / 210 no · 61 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−14%

63 yes / 197 no · 44 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

−13%

73 yes / 309 no · 61 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+11%

67 yes / 315 no · 61 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−10%

3 yes / 365 no · 61 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−10%

174 yes / 208 no · 61 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+10%

292 yes / 89 no · 61 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−8%

160 yes / 217 no · 60 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+6%

51 yes / 271 no · 53 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

207 yes / 165 no · 58 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

neutral

23 yes / 359 no · 61 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

neutral

135 yes / 247 no · 61 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

neutral

70 yes / 298 no · 61 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

neutral

62 yes / 319 no · 61 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 381 no · 61 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 382 no · 61 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 382 no · 61 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	6	2	0	0	2	0	2-for-4 · 2 BB
2026-09-18	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-17	5	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-16	5	0	0	0	2	1	0-for-3 · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-09-15	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-14	4	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-13	4	1	1	0	2	1	1-for-2 · 1 2B · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-09-12	5	0	0	0	2	2	0-for-3 · 1 R · 2 BB · 2 K
2026-09-11	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-09	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Mike Trout across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.