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Eugenio Suárez
DH · RHB · RHP · CIN
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Home vs
ATH
Starter
Stadium
Great American Ball Park
Model HR%
31.1%
Model Hits%
70.9%
Model K%
20.5%
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+11.1% edgemodel 71% · grade S
Why: NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%): -24.2% lift over 371 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (52% usage, .455 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Eugenio Suárez, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-10 | 41% | -16.9% |
| A | 4-13 | 24% | -59.9% |
| B | 3-12 | 20% | -16.8% |
Combined 14-35 · n=49 · ROI -31.8% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Eugenio Suárez (RHB) vs Mason Barnett RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Mason Barnett's arsenal × how Eugenio Suárez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 2.1
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=338 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.264
wOBA0.294
delta+0.030 hot
n=336 PA
Spray chart
621 balls in play since 2025Balls in play621
HR rate10.8%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo89.7 mph
Ground ball33%
Line drive21%
Fly ball37%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-24.2%significant
n=441 games · 9/70 HR when active
+28.4%significant
n=420 games · 18/75 HR when active
-20.2%significant
n=444 games · 14/98 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
4 / 4HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +35% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- +33% HR rate when playing at home.
- +23% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- +21% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+35%
201 yes / 243 no · 80 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
0.66× HR rate
69 yes / 208 no · 46 HRs
Playing at hometonight
+33%
237 yes / 207 no · 80 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+28%
75 yes / 345 no · 78 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−27%
138 yes / 306 no · 80 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+25%
41 yes / 403 no · 80 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−24%
70 yes / 371 no · 80 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+23%
311 yes / 133 no · 80 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−23%
163 yes / 280 no · 80 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
+23%
321 yes / 120 no · 80 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
+21%
355 yes / 88 no · 80 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−20%
98 yes / 346 no · 80 HRs
// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+19%
104 yes / 320 no · 77 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−19%
96 yes / 348 no · 80 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+18%
15 yes / 428 no · 80 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−16%
229 yes / 207 no · 78 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−15%
204 yes / 240 no · 80 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−12%
10 yes / 434 no · 80 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+11%
90 yes / 353 no · 80 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
−10%
3 yes / 441 no · 80 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+8%
199 yes / 240 no · 80 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 422 no · 77 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−6%
63 yes / 313 no · 71 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
210 yes / 234 no · 80 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 440 no · 80 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
174 yes / 263 no · 79 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
95 yes / 348 no · 80 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Eugenio Suárez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.