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Nolan Arenado
3B · RHB · RHP · ARI
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Nolan Arenado, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 11-8 | 58% | -1.2% |
| A | 5-9 | 36% | -40.6% |
| B | 7-8 | 47% | +76.0% |
Combined 23-25 · n=48 · ROI +11.5% · avg CLV -4.7 pts · beat close 36%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.7
Singlesavg 1.0
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 3.4
Home Runsavg 0.5
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.2
Splits
Career n=615 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-09-27
xStats luck
xwOBA0.294
wOBA0.348
delta+0.054 hot
n=613 PA
Spray chart
796 balls in play since 2025Balls in play796
HR rate5.4%
Hard-hit (95+)31%
Avg exit velo85.8 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive22%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-34.3%significant
n=438 games · 2/33 HR when active
+37.2%significant
n=438 games · 21/106 HR when active
+23.9%significant
n=438 games · 16/86 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-11-09
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
1.99× HR rate
147 yes / 286 no · 66 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.60× HR rate
174 yes / 255 no · 65 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+37%
106 yes / 332 no · 66 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
0.66× HR rate
33 yes / 405 no · 66 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+26%
157 yes / 272 no · 65 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−26%
43 yes / 394 no · 66 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+24%
86 yes / 352 no · 66 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+23%
329 yes / 107 no · 65 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−21%
324 yes / 114 no · 66 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−18%
6 yes / 432 no · 66 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+17%
193 yes / 245 no · 66 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−15%
5 yes / 424 no · 65 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+15%
79 yes / 330 no · 63 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+15%
20 yes / 417 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−9%
60 yes / 318 no · 57 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+9%
60 yes / 377 no · 66 HRs
Playing at home
+8%
229 yes / 209 no · 66 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+8%
330 yes / 107 no · 66 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−6%
213 yes / 225 no · 66 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
92 yes / 345 no · 65 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
236 yes / 181 no · 61 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
181 yes / 257 no · 66 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
85 yes / 206 no · 44 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
125 yes / 313 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
61 yes / 375 no · 65 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 438 no · 66 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 436 no · 65 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nolan Arenado across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.