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Nolan Arenado
3B · RHB · RHP · ARI
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Nolan Arenado, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-7 | 30% | -50.2% |
| A | 5-7 | 42% | -30.1% |
| B | 5-7 | 42% | +87.3% |
Combined 13-21 · n=34 · ROI +5.4% · avg CLV -3.4 pts · beat close 36%
Matchup
Nolan Arenado (RHB) vs Casey Mize RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Casey Mize's arsenal × how Nolan Arenado hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-05 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=430 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-08-03
xStats luck
xwOBA0.293
wOBA0.326
delta+0.033 hot
n=428 PA
Spray chart
661 balls in play since 2025· wind 8 mph cross-windBalls in play661
HR rate4.2%
Hard-hit (95+)32%
Avg exit velo86.1 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive23%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-2.0%small sample
n=289 games · 17/131 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +37% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
0.62× HR rate
78 yes / 211 no · 38 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+37%
117 yes / 172 no · 38 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+31%
18 yes / 270 no · 38 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+22%
41 yes / 247 no · 38 HRs
// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−14%
30 yes / 258 no · 38 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−7%
210 yes / 78 no · 38 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
131 yes / 158 no · 38 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
153 yes / 136 no · 38 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nolan Arenado across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.