Nolan Arenado

3B · RHB · RHP · ARI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

STL

Starter

Andre Pallante (RHP)

Stadium

Busch Stadium

Model HR%

12.0%

Model Hits%

71.4%

Model K%

30.6%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+10.8% edgemodel 71% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .344 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	71%	+10.8%	40%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	12%	+4.9%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Nolan Arenado, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	1-2	33%	-43.7%
A	0-4	0%	-100.0%
B	2-2	50%	-22.5%

Combined 3-8 · n=11 · ROI -56.4% · avg CLV -12.1 pts · beat close 14%

Matchup

Nolan Arenado (RHB) vs Andre Pallante RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Andre Pallante RHP · season · 74.9 IP · 322 BF

BAA

.230

wOBA

.280

SLG

.360

ISO

.130

WHIP

1.29

HR/9

1.08

BB%

9.3%

19.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.6%

HH%

33.5%

FB%

28.4%

HR/FB%

18.0%

Nolan Arenado hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	61-258	.236	.395	.159	9	10.1%	21.7%
vs RHP	44-185	.238	.395	.157	6	10.2%	24.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Andre Pallante's arsenal × how Nolan Arenado hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Andre Pallante throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	41%	94.5	13%	.373
Slider	28%	87.4	33%	.320
Knuckle Curve	15%	78.0	36%	.359
Sinker	15%	95.0	12%	.273
Splitter	1%	87.3	33%	.150
Changeup	0%	90.5	0%	.222
Sweeper	0%	83.0	0%	—

Nolan Arenado vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	676	11%	.344	88.4
Slider	449	31%	.315	83.6
Knuckle Curve	43	16%	.112	80.6
Sinker	471	6%	.328	88.7
Splitter	63	24%	.259	82.4
Changeup	224	25%	.256	87.5
Sweeper	233	26%	.216	79.6

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.5

Our model71% OVER+10.8% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0

Plate Appearancesavg 4.0

Hitsavg 0.5

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 0.5

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 1.0

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	A	11%	—	+500	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	71%	+10.8%	-154	+0.0	Sign in
1.5	OVER	B	28%	+4.9%	+300	+0.0	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-0.9%	+1400	+0.0	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	12%	+4.9%	+1301	-0.3	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+248	+0.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	5%	—	+700	+0.0	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	54%	—	+104	+0.5	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+550	+0.0	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	31%	—	-137	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	S	42%	—	+200	+0.0	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=287 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	61-258	.236	.395	.159	14	9	29	21.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	17-73	.233	.397	.164	3	3	8	15.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	44-185	.238	.395	.157	11	6	21	24.3%
Last 15 days recent form	7-45	.156	.156	.000	0	0	4	26.7%
vs STL tonight's opponent (full roster)	2-11	.182	.182	.000	0	0	3	0.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.282

wOBA0.289

delta+0.007 hot

n=285 PA

Spray chart

567 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play567

HR rate3.7%

Hard-hit (95+)30%

Avg exit velo86.3 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive23%

Fly ball29%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-2.0%small sample

n=289 games · 17/131 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21

// TONIGHT

2 / 4FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

-38% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
+37% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

0.62× HR rate

78 yes / 211 no · 38 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+37%

117 yes / 172 no · 38 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+31%

18 yes / 270 no · 38 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+22%

41 yes / 247 no · 38 HRs

// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−14%

30 yes / 258 no · 38 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−7%

210 yes / 78 no · 38 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

neutral

131 yes / 158 no · 38 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

153 yes / 136 no · 38 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	1	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-20	2	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-06-19	4	2	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-17	4	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-06-16	4	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-15	4	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-06-14	4	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-13	5	0	1	2	0-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-12	5	0	0	0	0-for-5 · 1 RBI
2026-06-11	4	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Nolan Arenado across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.