← BACK TO SLATE
Max Muncy
3B · LHB · RHP · LAD
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Max Muncy, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-7 | 59% | +22.8% |
| A | 4-1 | 80% | +87.6% |
| B | 0-6 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 14-14 · n=28 · ROI +8.0% · avg CLV -4.2 pts · beat close 40%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.4
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-08-08 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=412 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.341
wOBA0.358
delta+0.017 hot
n=412 PA
Spray chart
535 balls in play since 2025Balls in play535
HR rate8.2%
Hard-hit (95+)47%
Avg exit velo90.1 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive22%
Fly ball36%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+54.7%significant
n=376 games · 47/215 HR when active
-33.6%significant
n=386 games · 4/44 HR when active
-29.6%significant
n=390 games · 5/48 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
1.73× HR rate
254 yes / 136 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
1.55× HR rate
215 yes / 161 no · 68 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+44%
160 yes / 224 no · 69 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+40%
281 yes / 108 no · 70 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+34%
157 yes / 233 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−34%
44 yes / 342 no · 70 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−30%
48 yes / 342 no · 70 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+29%
82 yes / 305 no · 70 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−28%
25 yes / 363 no · 70 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−26%
52 yes / 308 no · 64 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−25%
64 yes / 299 no · 65 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−25%
30 yes / 359 no · 70 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+23%
47 yes / 341 no · 70 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−22%
294 yes / 92 no · 70 HRs
// 14 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+14%
207 yes / 73 no · 48 HRs
Playing at home
+13%
209 yes / 181 no · 70 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+10%
146 yes / 244 no · 70 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−9%
182 yes / 206 no · 70 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−7%
84 yes / 304 no · 70 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−7%
124 yes / 266 no · 70 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 358 no · 64 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+6%
31 yes / 302 no · 59 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 389 no · 70 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
80 yes / 307 no · 70 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
157 yes / 228 no · 69 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 390 no · 70 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 386 no · 70 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Max Muncy across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.