Max Muncy

3B · LHB · RHP · LAD

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

MIN

Starter

Connor Prielipp (LHP)

Stadium

Target Field

Model HR%

16.1%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Max Muncy, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	4-1	80%	+36.1%
A	3-1	75%	+109.4%
B	0-2	0%	-100.0%

Combined 7-4 · n=11 · ROI +38.0% · avg CLV -1.4 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Max Muncy (LHB) vs Connor Prielipp LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Connor Prielipp LHP · season · 57.9 IP · 249 BF

BAA

.251

wOBA

.324

SLG

.399

ISO

.148

WHIP

1.42

HR/9

0.93

BB%

10.4%

22.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.6%

HH%

39.3%

FB%

30.0%

HR/FB%

14.3%

Max Muncy hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	66-245	.269	.518	.249	17	14.3%	27.8%
vs LHP	14-54	.259	.500	.241	4	15.6%	27.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Connor Prielipp's arsenal × how Max Muncy hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Connor Prielipp throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSlider	35%	87.0	28%	.328
TOPFour-Seam	31%	95.0	12%	.331
TOPCurveball	15%	81.7	23%	.123
TOPChangeup	12%	86.4	26%	.581
Sinker	7%	94.3	15%	.407

Max Muncy vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSlider	419	33%	.414	90.4
TOPFour-Seam	778	14%	.506	95.0
TOPCurveball	304	32%	.396	90.4
TOPChangeup	298	36%	.477	88.2
Sinker	328	12%	.471	92.6

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.4

Plate Appearancesavg 3.4

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.4

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.6

Walksavg 0.6

Tonight's lines

2026-06-24 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	84%	—	—	—	Sign in

Splits

Career n=286 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-21

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	66-245	.269	.518	.249	10	17	41	27.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	14-54	.259	.500	.241	1	4	10	27.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	52-191	.272	.524	.251	9	13	31	27.7%
Last 15 days recent form	10-32	.313	.563	.250	2	2	11	18.8%
vs MIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	3-16	.188	.313	.125	2	0	4	50.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.371

wOBA0.381

delta+0.010 hot

n=286 PA

Spray chart

455 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph cross-wind

Balls in play455

HR rate8.6%

Hard-hit (95+)49%

Avg exit velo90.0 mph

Ground ball37%

Line drive22%

Fly ball35%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

-39.8%significant

n=353 games · 3/42 HR when active

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

-32.8%significant

n=358 games · 4/43 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+47.3%significant

n=348 games · 43/196 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-23

// TONIGHT

0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY

No DNA factors in play tonight

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

1.71× HR rate

233 yes / 125 no · 65 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

1.52× HR rate

257 yes / 100 no · 65 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+48%

147 yes / 205 no · 64 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+47%

196 yes / 152 no · 64 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

0.60× HR rate

42 yes / 311 no · 64 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+38%

81 yes / 274 no · 65 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−33%

21 yes / 336 no · 65 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−33%

43 yes / 315 no · 65 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−31%

27 yes / 330 no · 65 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−31%

55 yes / 277 no · 60 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−29%

248 yes / 105 no · 64 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+24%

143 yes / 215 no · 65 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−24%

36 yes / 293 no · 59 HRs

Playing at home

+24%

193 yes / 165 no · 65 HRs

// 14 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+14%

114 yes / 244 no · 65 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+10%

188 yes / 65 no · 43 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+9%

75 yes / 281 no · 65 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−9%

174 yes / 182 no · 65 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−8%

124 yes / 234 no · 65 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−8%

72 yes / 283 no · 65 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−7%

2 yes / 327 no · 59 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+5%

41 yes / 316 no · 65 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 357 no · 65 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

28 yes / 279 no · 56 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 358 no · 65 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

160 yes / 193 no · 64 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 353 no · 64 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-22	4	1	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 K
2026-06-21	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3 · 1 RBI
2026-06-20	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-1 · 1 K
2026-06-19	5	1	0	0	2	1	1-for-3 · 2 RBI · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-06-17	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-06-16	3	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-06-15	4	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-14	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-13	5	3	0	2	2	0	3-for-3 · 2 HR · 4 RBI · 2 R · 2 BB
2026-06-12	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Max Muncy across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.