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Max Muncy
3B · LHB · RHP · LAD
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Max Muncy, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-8 | 53% | -2.1% |
| A | 9-7 | 56% | -0.2% |
| B | 3-8 | 27% | -23.1% |
Combined 21-23 · n=44 · ROI -6.7% · avg CLV -2.5 pts · beat close 35%
Matchup
Max Muncy (LHB) vs Yusei Kikuchi favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Yusei Kikuchi's arsenal × how Max Muncy hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-09-23 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=561 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.342
wOBA0.361
delta+0.019 hot
n=561 PA
Spray chart
625 balls in play since 2025Balls in play625
HR rate8.3%
Hard-hit (95+)47%
Avg exit velo89.8 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive23%
Fly ball35%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+46.5%significant
n=411 games · 50/231 HR when active
-29.6%significant
n=400 games · 8/69 HR when active
-27.8%significant
n=428 games · 6/53 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-22
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +42% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
1.76× HR rate
278 yes / 153 no · 78 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
1.50× HR rate
177 yes / 248 no · 77 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+47%
231 yes / 180 no · 75 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
+42%
314 yes / 116 no · 78 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−30%
69 yes / 331 no · 72 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−28%
53 yes / 375 no · 78 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−26%
31 yes / 398 no · 78 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−25%
30 yes / 400 no · 78 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+24%
173 yes / 258 no · 78 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−21%
331 yes / 97 no · 78 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+20%
87 yes / 341 no · 78 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−20%
53 yes / 378 no · 78 HRs
// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+18%
54 yes / 375 no · 78 HRs
Playing at home
+17%
230 yes / 201 no · 78 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+16%
229 yes / 86 no · 55 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−15%
86 yes / 315 no · 72 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+12%
169 yes / 262 no · 78 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+10%
85 yes / 344 no · 78 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−8%
142 yes / 289 no · 78 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 399 no · 72 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 430 no · 78 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
32 yes / 331 no · 65 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
86 yes / 342 no · 78 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
172 yes / 252 no · 77 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
188 yes / 241 no · 78 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 431 no · 78 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 428 no · 78 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Max Muncy across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.