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Christian Walker
1B · RHB · RHP · HOU
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Christian Walker, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-4 | 56% | +15.4% |
| A | 5-8 | 38% | -6.4% |
| B | 3-6 | 33% | -17.3% |
Combined 13-18 · n=31 · ROI -3.2% · avg CLV +0.6 pts · beat close 56%
Matchup
Christian Walker (RHB) vs Trey Yesavage RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6Plate Appearancesavg 3.6
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.3
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=465 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-02
xStats luck
xwOBA0.307
wOBA0.329
delta+0.022 hot
n=464 PA
Spray chart
707 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph blowing outBalls in play707
HR rate6.9%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo89.9 mph
Ground ball40%
Line drive23%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-36.5%significant
n=466 games · 5/58 HR when active
+47.5%significant
n=466 games · 24/100 HR when active
+44.6%significant
n=462 games · 62/329 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +42% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- −21% HR rate when playing at home.
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.98× HR rate
180 yes / 283 no · 81 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+48%
103 yes / 369 no · 81 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+43%
86 yes / 383 no · 81 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
+42%
331 yes / 137 no · 80 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+34%
433 yes / 39 no · 81 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−32%
60 yes / 412 no · 81 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+30%
95 yes / 376 no · 81 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+24%
64 yes / 408 no · 81 HRs
Playing at hometonight
−21%
241 yes / 231 no · 81 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+20%
51 yes / 417 no · 80 HRs
// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−34%
14 yes / 457 no · 81 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−25%
9 yes / 450 no · 80 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+20%
56 yes / 416 no · 81 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−20%
251 yes / 216 no · 80 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−19%
267 yes / 205 no · 81 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−17%
166 yes / 293 no · 80 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+14%
74 yes / 365 no · 77 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+13%
366 yes / 105 no · 81 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−12%
245 yes / 211 no · 80 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+10%
8 yes / 464 no · 81 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+7%
224 yes / 248 no · 81 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−6%
200 yes / 272 no · 81 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−6%
76 yes / 329 no · 68 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
143 yes / 329 no · 81 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
74 yes / 250 no · 49 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 472 no · 81 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 468 no · 80 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Christian Walker across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.