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Willson Contreras
1B · RHB · RHP · BOS
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Willson Contreras, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-2 | 50% | +14.7% |
| A | 1-2 | 33% | +16.7% |
| B | 2-6 | 25% | -11.9% |
Combined 5-10 · n=15 · ROI +0.9% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 8%
Matchup
Willson Contreras (RHB) vs Ryan Feltner RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Ryan Feltner's arsenal × how Willson Contreras hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.1
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.6
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=317 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-06-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.356
wOBA0.374
delta+0.018 hot
n=316 PA
Spray chart
552 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph cross-windBalls in play552
HR rate6.5%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo88.3 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive25%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+28.7%significant
n=352 games · 27/147 HR when active
+28.2%significant
n=312 games · 12/60 HR when active
-18.3%small sample
n=327 games · 8/65 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
// TONIGHT
4 / 7FAVORABLE
Mixed, leaning favorable
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- +36% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- +32% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
- -29% HR rate when playing at home.
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+36%
142 yes / 212 no · 55 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+32%
91 yes / 263 no · 55 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+31%
306 yes / 48 no · 55 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+29%
147 yes / 205 no · 55 HRs
Playing at home
−29%
176 yes / 178 no · 55 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+28%
60 yes / 252 no · 48 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−22%
31 yes / 322 no · 55 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+21%
45 yes / 304 no · 55 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−18%
65 yes / 262 no · 51 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−17%
64 yes / 288 no · 55 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−17%
254 yes / 99 no · 55 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+16%
19 yes / 335 no · 55 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+9%
194 yes / 146 no · 52 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+8%
77 yes / 275 no · 55 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+7%
97 yes / 257 no · 55 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+5%
74 yes / 271 no · 53 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−5%
139 yes / 205 no · 54 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+5%
188 yes / 166 no · 55 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
71 yes / 151 no · 39 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
74 yes / 278 no · 55 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
220 yes / 129 no · 55 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
8 yes / 337 no · 53 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
150 yes / 199 no · 55 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
38 yes / 316 no · 55 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 354 no · 55 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 354 no · 55 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 349 no · 55 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Willson Contreras across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.