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Nick Castellanos
RF · RHB · RHP · SDP
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA2.9Plate Appearancesavg 2.9
Hitsavg 0.4
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.7
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.1
Splits
Career n=138 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-05-31
xStats luck
xwOBA0.259
wOBA0.232
delta−0.027 due
n=137 PA
Spray chart
539 balls in play since 2025Balls in play539
HR rate4.3%
Hard-hit (95+)33%
Avg exit velo87.8 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive26%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+47.0%significant
n=392 games · 14/72 HR when active
+41.1%significant
n=331 games · 9/46 HR when active
-22.3%significant
n=391 games · 31/260 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-23
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
1.51× HR rate
148 yes / 248 no · 53 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+47%
72 yes / 320 no · 52 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+41%
46 yes / 285 no · 43 HRs
Playing at home
+40%
217 yes / 179 no · 53 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−33%
44 yes / 351 no · 53 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+29%
68 yes / 308 no · 51 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+25%
183 yes / 212 no · 53 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−23%
179 yes / 217 no · 53 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+23%
53 yes / 338 no · 52 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−22%
260 yes / 131 no · 52 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−22%
26 yes / 369 no · 53 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+21%
217 yes / 178 no · 53 HRs
// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+19%
2 yes / 394 no · 53 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−15%
206 yes / 171 no · 48 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−12%
93 yes / 302 no · 53 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−8%
128 yes / 268 no · 53 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−8%
177 yes / 210 no · 53 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+7%
94 yes / 166 no · 34 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
10 yes / 366 no · 51 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+7%
92 yes / 300 no · 52 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+6%
277 yes / 118 no · 53 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
171 yes / 218 no · 53 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
63 yes / 303 no · 50 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
14 yes / 382 no · 53 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
46 yes / 350 no · 53 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
261 yes / 135 no · 53 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 391 no · 52 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nick Castellanos across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.