Manny Machado

3B · RHB · RHP · SDP

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

MIA

Starter

Sandy Alcantara (RHP)

Stadium

Petco Park

Model HR%

13.7%

Model Hits%

63.7%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 0.5+4.3% edgemodel 36% · grade B

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 0.5	36%	+4.3%	50%	LEAN
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	86%	+3.0%	80%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Manny Machado, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	10-4	71%	+70.4%
A	10-8	56%	+39.2%
B	8-8	50%	+86.8%

Combined 28-20 · n=48 · ROI +64.1% · avg CLV -8.7 pts · beat close 17%

Matchup

Manny Machado (RHB) vs Sandy Alcantara RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Sandy Alcantara RHP · season · 209.8 IP · 902 BF

BAA

.243

wOBA

.314

SLG

.378

ISO

.134

WHIP

1.29

HR/9

0.99

BB%

7.5%

17.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.2%

HH%

36.7%

FB%

34.2%

HR/FB%

11.3%

Manny Machado hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	122-581	.210	.392	.182	28	11.7%	23.6%
vs RHP	90-437	.206	.394	.188	23	12.1%	24.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Sandy Alcantara's arsenal × how Manny Machado hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Sandy Alcantara throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSinker	25%	97.1	9%	.340
TOPChangeup	23%	90.5	27%	.317
TOPFour-Seam	18%	97.5	14%	.402
TOPSlider	18%	85.4	22%	.382
TOPCutter	14%	89.3	25%	.411
Sweeper	2%	84.0	33%	.243

Manny Machado vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSinker	666	13%	.370	93.4
TOPChangeup	344	29%	.429	90.7
TOPFour-Seam	1162	23%	.473	97.7
TOPSlider	545	31%	.384	89.5
TOPCutter	216	25%	.374	92.6
Sweeper	366	29%	.295	86.9

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.6

Our model36% UNDER+4.3% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.7

Plate Appearancesavg 4.7

Hitsavg 0.6

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+450	+0.8	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	B	36%	+4.3%	+212	-0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	77%	-1.9%	-375	-1.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	B	86%	+3.0%	-500	-0.7	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+134	+1.2	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	B	7%	—	+475	+0.7	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	48%	—	-103	-0.2	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+550	+1.1	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	30%	—	+146	-0.3	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=658 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	122-581	.210	.392	.182	22	28	77	23.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	32-144	.222	.389	.167	9	5	17	22.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	90-437	.206	.394	.188	13	23	60	24.0%
Last 15 days recent form	10-49	.204	.469	.265	1	4	9	16.3%
vs Sandy Alcantara tonight's starting pitcher	4-7	.571	.714	.143	1	0	2	14.3%
vs MIA tonight's opponent (full roster)	18-70	.257	.414	.157	5	2	6	18.6%
@ Petco Park tonight's stadium	2394-9900	.242	.444	.202	443	520	1088	19.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.329

wOBA0.305

delta−0.024 due

n=655 PA

Spray chart

944 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play944

HR rate6.0%

Hard-hit (95+)48%

Avg exit velo91.2 mph

Ground ball39%

Line drive25%

Fly ball29%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

-23.2%significant

n=476 games · 6/52 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+24.3%significant

n=474 games · 20/95 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+19.2%small sample

n=471 games · 15/72 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY

No DNA factors in play tonight

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

1.69× HR rate

176 yes / 288 no · 80 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

1.60× HR rate

442 yes / 34 no · 81 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

1.51× HR rate

97 yes / 246 no · 61 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

0.63× HR rate

318 yes / 158 no · 81 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+26%

53 yes / 419 no · 80 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+24%

95 yes / 379 no · 81 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−23%

52 yes / 424 no · 81 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+20%

240 yes / 236 no · 81 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−19%

226 yes / 245 no · 81 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+19%

72 yes / 399 no · 81 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−17%

47 yes / 425 no · 80 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−13%

107 yes / 365 no · 81 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+13%

93 yes / 379 no · 81 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−9%

233 yes / 225 no · 79 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+7%

55 yes / 351 no · 68 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+6%

342 yes / 129 no · 81 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−6%

8 yes / 468 no · 81 HRs

Playing at home

−6%

249 yes / 227 no · 81 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

128 yes / 348 no · 81 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

19 yes / 456 no · 81 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

neutral

61 yes / 393 no · 79 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

neutral

5 yes / 459 no · 78 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

neutral

73 yes / 391 no · 78 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

neutral

228 yes / 246 no · 81 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

neutral

381 yes / 94 no · 81 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 471 no · 81 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 476 no · 81 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	5	2	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-18	5	0	0	1	2	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-17	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-09-16	5	1	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-15	4	1	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-14	5	1	1	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-13	4	1	1	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-12	5	0	0	1	0	0-for-4 · 1 BB
2026-09-11	5	0	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 K
2026-09-09	5	0	0	1	2	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Manny Machado across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.