Christian Yelich

DH · LHB · RHP · MIL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

CIN

Starter

Brady Singer (RHP)

Stadium

Great American Ball Park

Model HR%

16.4%

Model Hits%

71.4%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs UNDER 0.5+1.7% edgemodel 84% · grade PASS

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	84%	+1.7%	90%	LEAN
Hits	UNDER 1.5	70%	+1.3%	70%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Christian Yelich, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-1	75%	+71.8%
A	1-0	100%	+61.0%
B	1-3	25%	-64.0%

Combined 5-4 · n=9 · ROI +10.3% · avg CLV -1.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Christian Yelich (LHB) vs Brady Singer RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Brady Singer RHP · season · 78.4 IP · 337 BF

BAA

.296

wOBA

.371

SLG

.534

ISO

.238

WHIP

1.54

HR/9

2.07

BB%

8.9%

17.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.0%

HH%

46.1%

FB%

35.1%

HR/FB%

31.0%

Christian Yelich hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	49-192	.255	.406	.151	6	9.9%	31.3%
vs RHP	34-133	.256	.406	.150	4	9.5%	33.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Brady Singer's arsenal × how Christian Yelich hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Brady Singer throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Sinker	42%	91.9	13%	.409
TOPSlider	29%	82.5	26%	.345
Sweeper	11%	81.5	34%	.374
Four-Seam	9%	91.2	17%	.449
Cutter	8%	87.5	21%	.389

Christian Yelich vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Sinker	496	16%	.324	88.5
TOPSlider	456	41%	.437	90.7
Sweeper	231	39%	.315	85.6
Four-Seam	1042	19%	.427	91.2
Cutter	330	26%	.329	86.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.0

Our model71% OVER+0.8% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA5.1

Plate Appearancesavg 5.1

Hitsavg 1.0

Singlesavg 0.7

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.5

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.2

Walksavg 0.6

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	A	12%	—	+400	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	OVER	PASS	71%	+0.8%	-300	+0.0	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	PASS	70%	+1.3%	-222	+1.4	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-6.1%	+750	-1.6	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	84%	+1.7%	-455	+0.7	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	12%	—	+177	-0.7	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+500	+0.0	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	50%	—	-140	+0.0	—
1.5	—	A	12%	—	+380	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	PASS	47%	—	+127	-1.6	—
2.5	—	PASS	30%	—	+200	+0.0	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=213 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-19

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	49-192	.255	.406	.151	9	1	6	21	31.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	15-59	.254	.407	.153	1	1	2	7	27.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	34-133	.256	.406	.150	8	0	4	14	33.1%
Last 15 days recent form	10-41	.244	.366	.122	2	0	1	5	29.3%
vs Brady Singer tonight's starting pitcher	3-11	.273	.545	.273	0	0	1	1	27.3%
vs CIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	13-67	.194	.284	.090	0	0	2	7	37.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.313

wOBA0.333

delta+0.020 hot

n=213 PA

Spray chart

576 balls in play since 2025· wind 9 mph cross-wind

Balls in play576

HR rate6.1%

Hard-hit (95+)43%

Avg exit velo88.5 mph

Ground ball57%

Line drive23%

Fly ball17%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+81.5%significant

n=344 games · 38/214 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+36.7%significant

n=345 games · 15/79 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+28.3%significant

n=318 games · 10/52 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-09

// TONIGHT

2 / 8FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning against

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

+27% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
-20% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

1.81× HR rate

214 yes / 130 no · 49 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+49%

141 yes / 200 no · 49 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+44%

191 yes / 156 no · 49 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+37%

79 yes / 266 no · 49 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+33%

21 yes / 325 no · 49 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+28%

52 yes / 266 no · 46 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+27%

218 yes / 129 no · 49 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−27%

261 yes / 85 no · 49 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−21%

56 yes / 263 no · 46 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−20%

97 yes / 250 no · 49 HRs

// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−18%

176 yes / 170 no · 49 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−18%

31 yes / 316 no · 49 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−18%

137 yes / 204 no · 49 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+17%

79 yes / 267 no · 49 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−16%

5 yes / 314 no · 46 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−13%

42 yes / 266 no · 45 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+13%

158 yes / 189 no · 49 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+12%

165 yes / 59 no · 30 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+10%

37 yes / 310 no · 49 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−8%

77 yes / 269 no · 49 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−6%

46 yes / 298 no · 49 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 346 no · 49 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

180 yes / 167 no · 49 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

181 yes / 158 no · 47 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

0 yes / 347 no · 49 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 347 no · 49 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 344 no · 49 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	5	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-19	5	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-18	5	1	1	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-17	5	2	0	1	0	3	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 3 K
2026-06-16	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-13	5	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-12	5	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-10	5	1	1	0	1	2	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-09	5	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-08	7	2	0	0	0	2	2-for-7 · 2 R · 1 SB · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Christian Yelich across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.