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Jorge Polanco
DH · SHB · NYM
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+6.7% edgemodel 61% · grade A
Why: NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): -20.5% lift over 133 games · strong vs the Sinker (25% usage, .354 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Matchup
Jorge Polanco (SHB) vs Sandy Alcantara RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Sandy Alcantara's arsenal × how Jorge Polanco hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.4Plate Appearancesavg 3.4
Hitsavg 0.1
Singlesavg 0.1
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.1
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.4
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=130 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-31
xStats luck
xwOBA0.281
wOBA0.297
delta+0.016 hot
n=130 PA
Spray chart
542 balls in play since 2025Balls in play542
HR rate5.9%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo88.4 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive23%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-20.5%significant
n=267 games · 19/134 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY
No DNA factors in play tonight
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+40%
87 yes / 181 no · 45 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+33%
22 yes / 245 no · 45 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−20%
134 yes / 133 no · 44 HRs
// 9 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Playing at home
+19%
141 yes / 127 no · 45 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−10%
180 yes / 87 no · 45 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+8%
26 yes / 242 no · 45 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+8%
125 yes / 143 no · 45 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
107 yes / 161 no · 45 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Jorge Polanco across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.