Francisco Lindor

SS · SHB · NYM

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

Starter

Robbie Ray (LHP)

Stadium

Citi Field

Model HR%

17.4%

Model Hits%

64.2%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+2.8% edgemodel 77% · grade PASS

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	77%	+2.8%	80%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	17%	+0.4%	20%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Francisco Lindor, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	10-5	67%	+56.7%
A	5-7	42%	+53.9%
B	7-10	41%	+30.3%

Combined 22-22 · n=44 · ROI +45.7% · avg CLV -1.4 pts · beat close 50%

Matchup

Francisco Lindor (SHB) vs Robbie Ray LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Robbie Ray LHP · season · 137.7 IP · 592 BF

BAA

.214

wOBA

.332

SLG

.359

ISO

.145

WHIP

1.31

HR/9

1.18

BB%

11.5%

21.4%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.3%

HH%

38.0%

FB%

41.0%

HR/FB%

13.3%

Francisco Lindor hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	67-280	.239	.421	.182	12	11.4%	21.4%
vs LHP	18-79	.228	.418	.190	4	12.2%	15.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Robbie Ray's arsenal × how Francisco Lindor hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Robbie Ray throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	50%	93.5	19%	.370
TOPSlider	24%	87.0	30%	.365
Changeup	14%	85.1	33%	.345
Knuckle Curve	11%	80.7	36%	.420
Sinker	0%	93.0	0%	.355
Sweeper	0%	80.0	25%	.016

Francisco Lindor vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1310	13%	.419	93.2
TOPSlider	336	24%	.383	86.2
Changeup	495	21%	.304	87.4
Knuckle Curve	70	33%	.613	96.5
Sinker	368	15%	.424	91.4
Sweeper	160	21%	.301	90.5

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.1

Our model64% OVER+1.0% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.1

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.8

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.9

Tonight's lines

2026-08-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+450	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	OVER	PASS	64%	+1.0%	-172	-10.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	PASS	77%	+2.8%	-375	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	3%	-4.3%	+1200	-0.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	17%	+0.4%	+485	-0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	11%	—	+220	+2.2	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	43%	—	+110	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	34%	—	+156	+1.4	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=316 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-16

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	67-280	.239	.421	.182	7	4	12	36	21.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	18-79	.228	.418	.190	1	1	4	11	15.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	49-201	.244	.423	.179	6	3	8	25	23.9%
Last 15 days recent form	13-47	.277	.489	.213	1	0	3	8	29.8%
vs Robbie Ray tonight's starting pitcher	0-6	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	3	16.7%
@ Citi Field tonight's stadium	3061-11163	.274	.559	.285	222	302	784	1613	20.9%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.357

wOBA0.350

delta−0.007 due

n=316 PA

Spray chart

757 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play757

HR rate5.7%

Hard-hit (95+)48%

Avg exit velo91.3 mph

Ground ball38%

Line drive25%

Fly ball29%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+42.0%significant

n=413 games · 22/95 HR when active

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

-25.4%significant

n=414 games · 7/61 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-25.2%significant

n=391 games · 9/73 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-18

// TONIGHT

1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY

Mixed signals tonight

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+30% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
−29% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+42%

95 yes / 318 no · 70 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+34%

95 yes / 316 no · 70 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight

+30%

190 yes / 217 no · 70 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

−29%

327 yes / 86 no · 70 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−25%

61 yes / 353 no · 70 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−25%

73 yes / 318 no · 68 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+25%

81 yes / 328 no · 69 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+24%

65 yes / 345 no · 70 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+23%

293 yes / 121 no · 70 HRs

// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−18%

54 yes / 355 no · 69 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+17%

114 yes / 300 no · 70 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+13%

198 yes / 216 no · 70 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+12%

224 yes / 172 no · 67 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−10%

51 yes / 296 no · 55 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−10%

16 yes / 397 no · 70 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−9%

165 yes / 244 no · 69 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+9%

179 yes / 234 no · 70 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+9%

288 yes / 121 no · 69 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−9%

9 yes / 401 no · 70 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+6%

124 yes / 290 no · 70 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

247 yes / 166 no · 70 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 413 no · 70 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

neutral

51 yes / 362 no · 70 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

5 yes / 409 no · 70 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

208 yes / 206 no · 70 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 409 no · 69 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-17	4	0	0	0	2	0	0-for-2 · 1 R · 2 BB
2026-08-16	4	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-08-15	5	2	0	0	1	1	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-08-14	4	1	0	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-08-12	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-08-11	4	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-08-10	5	3	1	1	0	0	3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 3 R
2026-08-09	6	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-5 · 2 R · 1 BB
2026-08-08	2	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-2
2026-08-07	5	1	0	0	2	2	1-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB · 2 BB · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Francisco Lindor across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.