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Josh Bell
DH · SHB · RHP · MIN
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Josh Bell, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-1 | 83% | +85.9% |
| A | 2-4 | 33% | -11.3% |
| B | 7-6 | 54% | +51.1% |
Combined 14-11 · n=25 · ROI +44.5% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 45%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 0.4
Splits
Career n=448 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-31
xStats luck
xwOBA0.336
wOBA0.312
delta−0.024 due
n=447 PA
Spray chart
703 balls in play since 2025Balls in play703
HR rate5.0%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo90.2 mph
Ground ball43%
Line drive22%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+3.6%small sample
n=331 games · 20/147 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Rested (2+ days off)
−29%
21 yes / 312 no · 44 HRs
Playing at home
−27%
168 yes / 166 no · 44 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+23%
139 yes / 195 no · 44 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−22%
44 yes / 290 no · 44 HRs
// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+20%
127 yes / 207 no · 44 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+9%
235 yes / 98 no · 44 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+6%
101 yes / 233 no · 44 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
147 yes / 184 no · 44 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Josh Bell across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.