Josh Bell

DH · SHB · RHP · MIN

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

LAD

Starter

Eric Lauer (LHP)

Stadium

Target Field

Model HR%

22.6%

Model Hits%

72.2%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+9.1% edgemodel 23% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (46% usage, .417 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	23%	+9.1%	20%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	72%	+9.0%	90%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Josh Bell, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	1-1	50%	-18.9%
A	1-1	50%	+311.0%
B	3-2	60%	+161.4%

Combined 5-4 · n=9 · ROI +154.6% · avg CLV +0.6 pts · beat close 100%

Matchup

Josh Bell (SHB) vs Eric Lauer LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Eric Lauer LHP · season · 58.4 IP · 251 BF

BAA

.244

wOBA

.348

SLG

.489

ISO

.244

WHIP

1.34

HR/9

2.47

BB%

8.8%

15.9%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.7%

HH%

37.8%

FB%

45.2%

HR/FB%

26.2%

Josh Bell hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	69-293	.235	.379	.143	9	8.2%	24.6%
vs LHP	23-99	.232	.343	.111	2	7.5%	26.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Eric Lauer's arsenal × how Josh Bell hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Eric Lauer throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	46%	91.4	16%	.386
Cutter	20%	86.4	22%	.483
Curveball	14%	75.1	22%	.349
Slider	11%	83.0	22%	.283
Changeup	10%	84.3	15%	.390
Sinker	0%	91.9	—	—

Josh Bell vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	903	16%	.417	94.0
Cutter	259	16%	.335	87.4
Curveball	219	36%	.299	86.1
Slider	337	27%	.411	92.5
Changeup	539	31%	.373	85.3
Sinker	380	15%	.332	91.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.4

Our model72% OVER+9.0% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7

Plate Appearancesavg 3.7

Hitsavg 1.4

Singlesavg 0.9

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 2.3

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+425	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	72%	+9.0%	-172	+0.7	Sign in
1.5	OVER	B	30%	+4.0%	+280	+1.3	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	7%	-1.0%	+1200	+0.5	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	23%	+9.1%	+642	-1.0	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	15%	—	+195	+0.6	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+500	+1.3	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	49%	—	+115	+1.1	—
1.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+600	+1.8	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	S	49%	—	+154	+0.3	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=319 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	69-293	.235	.379	.143	15	9	26	24.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	23-99	.232	.343	.111	5	2	8	26.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	46-194	.237	.397	.160	10	7	18	23.7%
Last 15 days recent form	17-47	.362	.681	.319	3	4	3	17.0%
vs LAD tonight's opponent (full roster)	7-16	.438	.625	.188	0	1	4	12.5%
@ Target Field tonight's stadium	670-2618	.256	.425	.169	52	130	164	35.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.347

wOBA0.330

delta−0.017 due

n=318 PA

Spray chart

614 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph cross-wind

Balls in play614

HR rate5.0%

Hard-hit (95+)45%

Avg exit velo90.0 mph

Ground ball44%

Line drive23%

Fly ball27%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+3.6%small sample

n=331 games · 20/147 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21

// TONIGHT

3 / 4FAVORABLE

Mostly favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

-29% HR rate when rested (2+ days off).
+23% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
-22% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).

Rested (2+ days off)

−29%

21 yes / 312 no · 44 HRs

Playing at home

−27%

168 yes / 166 no · 44 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+23%

139 yes / 195 no · 44 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−22%

44 yes / 290 no · 44 HRs

// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+20%

127 yes / 207 no · 44 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+9%

235 yes / 98 no · 44 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+6%

101 yes / 233 no · 44 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

neutral

147 yes / 184 no · 44 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	1	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-1 · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-06-20	6	2	1	0	1	0	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 BB
2026-06-19	4	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-18	5	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-16	5	2	1	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-15	4	2	0	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-14	4	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-13	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-1 · 1 RBI
2026-06-12	4	1	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-06-11	3	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-3 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Josh Bell across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.