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Mookie Betts
SS · RHB · RHP · LAD
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Mookie Betts, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-8 | 53% | +46.6% |
| A | 6-15 | 29% | -17.6% |
| B | 2-10 | 17% | -6.7% |
Combined 17-33 · n=50 · ROI +6.9% · avg CLV -2.2 pts · beat close 31%
Matchup
Mookie Betts (RHB) vs Matt Wilkinson favors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6Plate Appearancesavg 4.6
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 2.9
Home Runsavg 0.5
Strikeoutsavg 0.3
Walksavg 0.7
Splits
Career n=514 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.333
wOBA0.327
delta−0.006 due
n=514 PA
Spray chart
1003 balls in play since 2025Balls in play1003
HR rate4.3%
Hard-hit (95+)36%
Avg exit velo89.6 mph
Ground ball33%
Line drive26%
Fly ball34%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-29.8%significant
n=467 games · 6/61 HR when active
+39.7%significant
n=467 games · 21/96 HR when active
-26.8%significant
n=467 games · 52/358 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
5 / 7HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +57% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- +37% HR rate when playing at home.
- −30% HR rate when vs fly-ball-prone pitcher (fb% allowed > 40%).
- +29% HR rate when vs hr-prone pitcher (hr/pa > 3.8%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
1.57× HR rate
359 yes / 110 no · 75 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+47%
105 yes / 225 no · 54 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+40%
96 yes / 371 no · 75 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
0.61× HR rate
27 yes / 442 no · 75 HRs
Playing at hometonight
+37%
241 yes / 229 no · 75 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.64× HR rate
42 yes / 426 no · 75 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+32%
96 yes / 372 no · 75 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)tonight
−30%
61 yes / 406 no · 75 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)tonight
+29%
94 yes / 372 no · 74 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−27%
93 yes / 350 no · 74 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−27%
358 yes / 109 no · 75 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight
+27%
177 yes / 288 no · 74 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
+24%
203 yes / 265 no · 75 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−23%
62 yes / 408 no · 75 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−22%
46 yes / 353 no · 63 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
−21%
132 yes / 338 no · 75 HRs
// 12 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+14%
69 yes / 372 no · 72 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−13%
60 yes / 408 no · 75 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−12%
106 yes / 364 no · 75 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−10%
17 yes / 453 no · 75 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−10%
189 yes / 275 no · 74 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
−10%
3 yes / 467 no · 75 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−7%
244 yes / 208 no · 73 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 441 no · 74 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+5%
320 yes / 150 no · 75 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
222 yes / 248 no · 75 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 467 no · 75 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Mookie Betts across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.