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Teoscar Hernández
LF · RHB · RHP · LAD
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Teoscar Hernández, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-2 | 67% | +29.0% |
| A | 3-8 | 27% | -45.7% |
| B | 3-4 | 43% | -15.3% |
Combined 10-14 · n=24 · ROI -18.2% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.4
Walksavg 0.0
Splits
Career n=524 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-10-06
xStats luck
xwOBA0.320
wOBA0.329
delta+0.009 hot
n=523 PA
Spray chart
766 balls in play since 2025Balls in play766
HR rate6.7%
Hard-hit (95+)46%
Avg exit velo90.4 mph
Ground ball45%
Line drive21%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+54.1%significant
n=473 games · 21/91 HR when active
+48.4%significant
n=473 games · 22/100 HR when active
+44.0%small sample
n=477 games · 4/10 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-10-06
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
1.54× HR rate
91 yes / 382 no · 73 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+48%
100 yes / 373 no · 73 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+33%
163 yes / 314 no · 74 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+30%
210 yes / 267 no · 74 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+30%
62 yes / 414 no · 74 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−28%
101 yes / 343 no · 68 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+26%
328 yes / 149 no · 74 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−25%
119 yes / 357 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−23%
72 yes / 370 no · 67 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+44%
10 yes / 467 no · 74 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−20%
225 yes / 229 no · 67 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+20%
57 yes / 420 no · 74 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+20%
23 yes / 453 no · 74 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+16%
102 yes / 217 no · 47 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−11%
362 yes / 111 no · 73 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−10%
194 yes / 283 no · 74 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−8%
91 yes / 384 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+7%
50 yes / 348 no · 58 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−6%
76 yes / 397 no · 73 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
251 yes / 226 no · 74 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
242 yes / 230 no · 74 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
195 yes / 270 no · 72 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
204 yes / 271 no · 74 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 472 no · 73 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
360 yes / 116 no · 74 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 477 no · 74 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
0 yes / 444 no · 68 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Teoscar Hernández across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.