Ketel Marte

2B · SHB · RHP · ARI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

STL

Starter

Andre Pallante (RHP)

Stadium

Busch Stadium

Model HR%

15.1%

Model Hits%

72.4%

Model K%

29.6%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+5.1% edgemodel 72% · grade A

Why: Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%): +64.7% lift over 263 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .436 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	72%	+5.1%	90%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	15%	+3.2%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Ketel Marte, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	2-1	67%	-1.7%
A	1-3	25%	-10.0%
B	1-2	33%	-55.6%

Combined 4-6 · n=10 · ROI -21.2% · avg CLV -2.6 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Ketel Marte (SHB) vs Andre Pallante RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Andre Pallante RHP · season · 74.9 IP · 322 BF

BAA

.230

wOBA

.280

SLG

.360

ISO

.130

WHIP

1.29

HR/9

1.08

BB%

9.3%

19.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.6%

HH%

33.5%

FB%

28.4%

HR/FB%

18.0%

Ketel Marte hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	76-301	.252	.439	.186	12	8.2%	15.3%
vs RHP	49-209	.234	.392	.158	7	8.7%	15.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Andre Pallante's arsenal × how Ketel Marte hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Andre Pallante throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	41%	94.5	13%	.373
TOPSlider	28%	87.4	33%	.320
TOPKnuckle Curve	15%	78.0	36%	.359
TOPSinker	15%	95.0	12%	.273
Splitter	1%	87.3	33%	.150
Changeup	0%	90.5	0%	.222
Sweeper	0%	83.0	0%	—

Ketel Marte vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	908	13%	.436	91.7
TOPSlider	389	21%	.395	89.8
TOPKnuckle Curve	34	24%	.393	93.8
TOPSinker	305	9%	.455	94.2
Splitter	167	33%	.347	89.7
Changeup	507	27%	.393	88.7
Sweeper	185	36%	.349	87.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.3

Our model72% OVER+5.1% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 1.3

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.4

Total Basesavg 2.0

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.3

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	11%	—	+378	+0.9	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	72%	+5.1%	-204	+0.0	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	30%	+0.7%	+220	+0.0	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-4.7%	+800	+0.6	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	15%	+3.2%	+742	+0.4	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+206	+0.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+700	+0.0	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	55%	—	-130	+0.0	—
1.5	—	B	13%	—	+450	+0.0	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	30%	—	-137	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	B	44%	—	+151	+0.5	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=328 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	76-301	.252	.439	.186	16	2	12	27	15.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	27-92	.293	.543	.250	6	1	5	7	14.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	49-209	.234	.392	.158	10	1	7	20	15.8%
Last 15 days recent form	14-48	.292	.438	.146	4	0	1	5	10.4%
vs STL tonight's opponent (full roster)	4-26	.154	.423	.269	2	1	1	1	19.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.361

wOBA0.340

delta−0.021 due

n=326 PA

Spray chart

667 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play667

HR rate5.7%

Hard-hit (95+)47%

Avg exit velo90.2 mph

Ground ball42%

Line drive24%

Fly ball26%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+64.7%significant

n=390 games · 50/263 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

-31.7%significant

n=390 games · 5/54 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-24.0%significant

n=360 games · 6/52 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

5 / 9FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

-35% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
-32% HR rate when vs fly-ball-prone pitcher (fb% allowed > 40%).
-30% HR rate when rested (2+ days off).

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

1.65× HR rate

263 yes / 127 no · 63 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

0.65× HR rate

32 yes / 356 no · 63 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−32%

54 yes / 336 no · 63 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−30%

20 yes / 370 no · 63 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+26%

170 yes / 216 no · 61 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−24%

52 yes / 308 no · 61 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−23%

58 yes / 279 no · 57 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+21%

65 yes / 323 no · 63 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−20%

184 yes / 202 no · 63 HRs

// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−18%

6 yes / 385 no · 63 HRs

Playing at home

−18%

202 yes / 189 no · 63 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+16%

291 yes / 100 no · 63 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+14%

159 yes / 232 no · 63 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+14%

190 yes / 201 no · 63 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+14%

195 yes / 187 no · 62 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−13%

4 yes / 387 no · 63 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−11%

51 yes / 340 no · 63 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−10%

96 yes / 295 no · 63 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

−10%

83 yes / 308 no · 63 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+9%

158 yes / 226 no · 62 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−7%

113 yes / 278 no · 63 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−6%

92 yes / 299 no · 63 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+5%

286 yes / 104 no · 63 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

neutral

6 yes / 378 no · 62 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 390 no · 63 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 391 no · 63 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	5	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 RBI
2026-06-20	2	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-1 · 1 BB
2026-06-19	5	1	0	1	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-17	5	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-06-16	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-06-15	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R
2026-06-14	5	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 BB
2026-06-13	5	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 BB
2026-06-12	5	1	1	0	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 2 K
2026-06-11	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Ketel Marte across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.