Trea Turner

SS · RHB · RHP · PHI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

NYM

Starter

Freddy Peralta (RHP)

Stadium

Citizens Bank Park

Model HR%

14.5%

Model Hits%

69.9%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.7% edgemodel 15% · grade B

Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +92.6% lift over 171 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (53% usage, .384 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	15%	+3.7%	0%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	70%	+0.5%	50%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Trea Turner, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-1	75%	+7.6%
A	0-5	0%	-100.0%
B	0-5	0%	-100.0%

Combined 3-11 · n=14 · ROI -69.2% · avg CLV -2.2 pts · beat close 11%

Matchup

Trea Turner (RHB) vs Freddy Peralta RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Freddy Peralta RHP · season · 83.3 IP · 358 BF

BAA

.234

wOBA

.302

SLG

.380

ISO

.146

WHIP

1.34

HR/9

1.08

BB%

10.3%

22.6%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.7%

HH%

38.8%

FB%

30.3%

HR/FB%

17.5%

Trea Turner hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	68-317	.215	.322	.107	7	6.8%	24.3%
vs RHP	50-217	.230	.355	.124	6	4.4%	26.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Freddy Peralta's arsenal × how Trea Turner hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Freddy Peralta throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	53%	94.5	20%	.388
Changeup	21%	88.5	30%	.296
Curveball	12%	79.5	31%	.334
Slider	10%	83.5	48%	.337
Slow Curve	2%	74.8	38%	.363
Sweeper	1%	80.2	54%	.067

Trea Turner vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	987	16%	.384	93.2
Changeup	344	29%	.322	88.0
Curveball	255	28%	.298	84.2
Slider	572	33%	.337	88.4
Slow Curve	6	33%	.202	58.0
Sweeper	295	39%	.364	84.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Our model70% OVER+0.5% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 1.1

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 1.2

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-06-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	9%	—	+425	-0.4	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	70%	+0.5%	-227	+0.5	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	74%	-2.0%	-320	—	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	4%	-7.0%	+800	+0.0	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	15%	+3.7%	+820	+0.0	Sign in

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	50%	—	-135	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	PASS	42%	—	+143	-0.3	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=340 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	68-317	.215	.322	.107	13	0	7	23	24.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	18-100	.180	.250	.070	4	0	1	13	20.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	50-217	.230	.355	.124	9	0	6	10	26.3%
Last 15 days recent form	9-46	.196	.261	.065	3	0	0	5	28.3%
vs Freddy Peralta tonight's starting pitcher	0-8	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	50.0%
vs NYM tonight's opponent (full roster)	13-70	.186	.271	.086	1	1	1	6	30.0%
@ Citizens Bank Park tonight's stadium	1545-5384	.287	.342	.055	297	0	0	567	21.9%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.288

wOBA0.302

delta+0.014 hot

n=340 PA

Spray chart

751 balls in play since 2025· wind 13 mph cross-wind

Balls in play751

HR rate2.9%

Hard-hit (95+)40%

Avg exit velo88.5 mph

Ground ball48%

Line drive23%

Fly ball25%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+92.6%significant

n=350 games · 27/171 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21

// TONIGHT

0 / 3FAVORABLE

Mostly against

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

1.93× HR rate

171 yes / 179 no · 40 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+44%

261 yes / 90 no · 40 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+27%

101 yes / 251 no · 40 HRs

// 9 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+19%

42 yes / 310 no · 40 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−6%

20 yes / 331 no · 40 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

189 yes / 163 no · 40 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

156 yes / 196 no · 40 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

neutral

221 yes / 131 no · 40 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-18	1	0	0	0	0	0-for-1 · 1 R
2026-06-17	5	3	1	0	1	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-06-15	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-06-14	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-13	6	1	0	0	2	1-for-6 · 2 K
2026-06-12	3	0	0	0	2	0-for-3 · 2 K
2026-06-10	5	1	0	0	3	1-for-5 · 3 K
2026-06-09	4	1	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-08	5	0	0	1	0	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 BB
2026-06-07	5	2	1	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Trea Turner across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.