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Trea Turner
SS · RHB · RHP · PHI
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+2.1% edgemodel 75% · grade PASS
Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +92.6% lift over 171 games · strong vs the Cutter (47% usage, .392 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Trea Turner, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 23-5 | 82% | +61.0% |
| A | 8-9 | 47% | +72.3% |
| B | 10-12 | 45% | +26.7% |
Combined 41-26 · n=67 · ROI +52.6% · avg CLV -0.9 pts · beat close 28%
Matchup
Trea Turner (RHB) vs Zac Thornton LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Zac Thornton's arsenal × how Trea Turner hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=675 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.283
wOBA0.287
delta+0.004 hot
n=675 PA
Spray chart
995 balls in play since 2025Balls in play995
HR rate3.4%
Hard-hit (95+)40%
Avg exit velo88.2 mph
Ground ball47%
Line drive23%
Fly ball25%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+92.6%significant
n=350 games · 27/171 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +44% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- +27% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
1.93× HR rate
171 yes / 179 no · 40 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
+44%
261 yes / 90 no · 40 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
+27%
101 yes / 251 no · 40 HRs
// 9 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+19%
42 yes / 310 no · 40 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−6%
20 yes / 331 no · 40 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
189 yes / 163 no · 40 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
156 yes / 196 no · 40 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
221 yes / 131 no · 40 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Trea Turner across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.