Alex Bregman

3B · RHB · RHP · CHC

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

NYM

Starter

Kodai Senga

Stadium

Citi Field

Model HR%

15.7%

Model Hits%

71.2%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+8.0% edgemodel 71% · grade A

Why: NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): -31.1% lift over 204 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (32% usage, .371 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	71%	+8.0%	70%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	16%	+2.6%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Alex Bregman, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	0-4	0%	-100.0%
A	2-0	100%	+53.6%
B	0-1	0%	-100.0%

Combined 2-5 · n=7 · ROI -56.1% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Alex Bregman (RHB) vs Kodai Senga favors batterfavors pitcher

Kodai Senga · season · 30.2 IP · 130 BF

BAA

.279

wOBA

.375

SLG

.513

ISO

.234

WHIP

1.66

HR/9

2.09

BB%

14.6%

24.6%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.0%

HH%

38.0%

FB%

46.0%

HR/FB%

30.4%

Alex Bregman hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	81-314	.258	.389	.131	9	12.3%	18.2%
vs ?HP	61-236	.258	.419	.161	8	10.9%	17.4%

Pitch-type matchup

Kodai Senga's arsenal × how Alex Bregman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Kodai Senga throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	32%	94.9	18%	.426
Forkball	27%	82.6	40%	.280
Cutter	21%	89.6	17%	.336
Sweeper	9%	80.1	21%	.423
Sinker	6%	88.5	11%	.311
Slider	4%	83.8	35%	.300
Curveball	2%	68.4	60%	.016
Pitchout	0%	79.3	—	—
Eephus	0%	50.7	—	—

Alex Bregman vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	830	7%	.371	93.3
Forkball	1	0%	.132	71.5
Cutter	218	15%	.342	87.6
Sweeper	250	29%	.336	89.0
Sinker	620	5%	.320	90.1
Slider	518	30%	.321	85.3
Curveball	178	23%	.210	80.2
Pitchout	no sample
Eephus	1	—	—	—

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model71% OVER+8.0% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6

Plate Appearancesavg 4.6

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.7

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.3

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.4

Walksavg 0.9

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+450	-0.9	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	71%	+8.0%	-172	-0.9	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	28%	+2.2%	+260	+0.0	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-2.8%	+1100	+0.0	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	16%	+2.6%	+665	+0.6	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	11%	—	+204	+0.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+600	+0.0	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	A	53%	—	+110	-0.7	—
1.5	—	B	11%	—	+500	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	A	43%	—	+166	+0.4	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=358 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	81-314	.258	.389	.131	12	1	9	44	18.2%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	20-78	.256	.295	.038	0	0	1	15	20.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	61-236	.258	.419	.161	12	1	8	29	17.4%
Last 15 days recent form	11-44	.250	.341	.091	1	0	1	11	11.4%
vs Kodai Senga tonight's starting pitcher	2-5	.400	.600	.200	1	0	0	0	20.0%
vs NYM tonight's opponent (full roster)	11-37	.297	.568	.270	2	1	2	3	10.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.319

wOBA0.325

delta+0.006 hot

n=358 PA

Spray chart

640 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play640

HR rate4.4%

Hard-hit (95+)42%

Avg exit velo89.8 mph

Ground ball39%

Line drive24%

Fly ball25%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-31.1%significant

n=391 games · 22/187 HR when active

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+27.5%significant

n=332 games · 12/63 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

-21.2%significant

n=390 games · 9/79 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

6 / 10FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

-47% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
-34% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
-31% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

0.53× HR rate

228 yes / 159 no · 59 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+41%

43 yes / 349 no · 59 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−34%

101 yes / 291 no · 59 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+33%

309 yes / 82 no · 59 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−32%

267 yes / 125 no · 59 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−31%

187 yes / 204 no · 59 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+27%

63 yes / 269 no · 49 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+27%

208 yes / 168 no · 58 HRs

Playing at home

−27%

201 yes / 191 no · 59 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+26%

56 yes / 316 no · 56 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−21%

79 yes / 311 no · 58 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−20%

15 yes / 376 no · 59 HRs

// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+18%

88 yes / 295 no · 56 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−17%

169 yes / 218 no · 57 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+16%

62 yes / 325 no · 58 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−14%

73 yes / 185 no · 37 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

+13%

9 yes / 374 no · 56 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−13%

141 yes / 251 no · 59 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+10%

202 yes / 190 no · 59 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+8%

245 yes / 142 no · 58 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+7%

132 yes / 260 no · 59 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−6%

30 yes / 362 no · 59 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+5%

69 yes / 322 no · 59 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

neutral

73 yes / 316 no · 58 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 392 no · 59 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 392 no · 59 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 387 no · 58 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-20	5	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 R
2026-06-19	5	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-17	4	0	0	0	2	0	0-for-2 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 BB
2026-06-16	5	0	0	0	2	2	0-for-3 · 2 BB · 2 K
2026-06-15	5	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 BB
2026-06-14	4	2	0	0	0	0	2-for-4
2026-06-13	5	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-5
2026-06-12	4	1	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-11	5	1	0	1	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-10	4	0	0	0	2	0	0-for-2 · 2 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Alex Bregman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.