Corey Seager

SS · LHB · RHP · TEX

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

MIN

Starter

Bailey Ober (RHP)

Stadium

Target Field

Model HR%

24.3%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Corey Seager, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	2-2	50%	-23.5%
A	1-1	50%	-26.5%
B	2-0	100%	+227.0%

Combined 5-3 · n=8 · ROI +38.4% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Corey Seager (LHB) vs Bailey Ober RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Bailey Ober RHP · season · 133.7 IP · 575 BF

BAA

.254

wOBA

.344

SLG

.427

ISO

.173

WHIP

1.33

HR/9

1.41

BB%

7.5%

16.4%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.6%

HH%

40.1%

FB%

42.9%

HR/FB%

13.5%

Corey Seager hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	87-391	.223	.417	.194	19	11.5%	27.1%
vs RHP	54-259	.208	.398	.189	12	12.2%	25.5%

Pitch-type matchup

Bailey Ober's arsenal × how Corey Seager hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Bailey Ober throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	35%	89.8	16%	.377
TOPChangeup	31%	83.1	26%	.329
TOPSlider	17%	83.3	19%	.354
Sweeper	10%	77.9	36%	.353
Curveball	4%	74.6	20%	.630
Sinker	3%	89.8	5%	.521

Corey Seager vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	657	26%	.536	96.0
TOPChangeup	314	25%	.421	91.1
TOPSlider	372	38%	.474	91.9
Sweeper	189	39%	.382	92.6
Curveball	157	32%	.491	90.0
Sinker	401	18%	.375	93.5

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.4

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-09-26 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	76%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=442 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-24

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	87-391	.223	.417	.194	19	19	51	27.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	33-132	.250	.455	.205	6	7	15	30.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	54-259	.208	.398	.189	13	12	36	25.5%
Last 15 days recent form	11-50	.220	.380	.160	2	2	3	26.0%
vs Bailey Ober tonight's starting pitcher	1-6	.167	.667	.500	0	1	2	16.7%
vs MIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	12-46	.261	.543	.283	1	4	8	26.1%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.340

wOBA0.319

delta−0.021 due

n=441 PA

Spray chart

585 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph cross-wind

Balls in play585

HR rate7.2%

Hard-hit (95+)49%

Avg exit velo92.2 mph

Ground ball44%

Line drive22%

Fly ball31%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

-24.2%significant

n=356 games · 7/49 HR when active

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

-23.1%significant

n=302 games · 6/44 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-22.9%significant

n=332 games · 8/52 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-22

// TONIGHT

0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY

No DNA factors in play tonight

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+29%

56 yes / 300 no · 76 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+27%

70 yes / 286 no · 76 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−24%

49 yes / 307 no · 76 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−23%

44 yes / 258 no · 61 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−23%

52 yes / 280 no · 73 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−23%

254 yes / 102 no · 76 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+23%

141 yes / 200 no · 74 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−22%

106 yes / 250 no · 76 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−17%

201 yes / 144 no · 72 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+13%

175 yes / 181 no · 76 HRs

Playing at home

+12%

190 yes / 166 no · 76 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−10%

3 yes / 338 no · 74 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+7%

115 yes / 241 no · 76 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−7%

196 yes / 54 no · 51 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+6%

257 yes / 99 no · 76 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+6%

209 yes / 146 no · 76 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−6%

170 yes / 186 no · 76 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+6%

57 yes / 299 no · 76 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

136 yes / 216 no · 75 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

44 yes / 311 no · 76 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

neutral

269 yes / 86 no · 76 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

24 yes / 331 no · 76 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

neutral

46 yes / 310 no · 76 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

5 yes / 351 no · 76 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

neutral

144 yes / 207 no · 76 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 356 no · 76 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 356 no · 76 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-25	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-24	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-23	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-22	4	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-09-20	5	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-5
2026-09-19	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-18	5	1	1	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-17	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-16	5	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-15	4	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Corey Seager across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.