← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +19.0% edge model 69% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (47% usage, .384 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 69% +19.0% 60% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 19% +7.7% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Luis Torrens, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-1 67% +30.3% A — — — B 2-1 67% -6.6%
Combined 4-2 · n=6 · ROI +11.8% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup Luis Torrens (RHB) vs Shota Imanaga LHP favors batter favors pitcher Shota Imanaga LHP · season · 90.7 IP · 390 BF
Luis Torrens hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 29-136 .213 .301 .088 1 6.2% 22.8% vs LHP 9-38 .237 .289 .053 0 5.0% 23.7%
Pitch-type matchup Shota Imanaga's arsenal × how Luis Torrens hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Shota Imanaga throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam47% 91.2 14% .408 Splitter 32% 83.1 35% .332 TOP Sweeper16% 80.8 35% .437 Sinker 3% 89.8 16% .260 Curveball 2% 72.7 23% .432 Slider 0% 81.9 50% .513
Luis Torrens vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam434 12% .384 93.8 Splitter 49 37% .265 90.8 TOP Sweeper114 41% .414 89.7 Sinker 304 12% .397 89.5 Curveball 92 41% .364 87.7 Slider 243 24% .400 87.1
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles50% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks0% RBIs10% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 69% OVER +19.0% edge S
2 @SEA 06-03 2 @SDP 06-05 0 @SDP 06-06 0 @SDP 06-07 0 vSTL 06-10 2 vATL 06-12 0 vATL 06-14 1 @CIN 06-17 1 @PHI 06-20 1 @PHI 06-21
L5 80% 4/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 50% 10/20 2026 49% 27/55 2025 48% 46/95
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.6 Plate Appearances avg 3.6
4 3 3 4 3 3 4 5 4 3 Total Bases avg 1.4
3 6 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.8
1 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 69% +19.0% -117 — Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 19% +7.7% +725 — Sign in
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 49% — -137 — —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-117 Home Runs OVER 0.5+725
Price legs
Splits Career n=145 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
29-136 .213 .301 .088 9 0 1 9 22.8% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
9-38 .237 .289 .053 2 0 0 2 23.7% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
20-98 .204 .306 .102 7 0 1 7 22.4% Last 15 days
recent form
4-22 .182 .182 .000 0 0 0 1 18.2% vs CHC
tonight's opponent (full roster)
3-10 .300 .500 .200 2 0 0 1 20.0% @ Citi Field
tonight's stadium
210-1265 .166 .166 .000 0 0 0 111 17.8%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.274
wOBA 0.259
delta −0.015 due
n=145 PA
Spray chart 324 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Shota Imanaga's mix Balls in play 324
HR rate 1.9%
Hard-hit (95+) 44%
Avg exit velo 90.0 mph
Ground ball 52%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 20%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-20 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-17 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-5 · 1 R 2026-06-14 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-12 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-3 · 1 R 2026-06-10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-07 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-06 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-05 3 2 1 0 1 0 1 2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 K 2026-06-03 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Luis Torrens across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.