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Dansby Swanson
SS · RHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Dansby Swanson, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-8 | 56% | +106.4% |
| A | 2-8 | 20% | -66.0% |
| B | 2-8 | 20% | -54.2% |
Combined 14-24 · n=38 · ROI +18.8% · avg CLV +0.3 pts · beat close 61%
Matchup
Dansby Swanson (RHB) vs Dylan Cease RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Dylan Cease's arsenal × how Dansby Swanson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=443 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.307
wOBA0.302
delta−0.005 due
n=441 PA
Spray chart
730 balls in play since 2025Balls in play730
HR rate5.5%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo88.6 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive23%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+46.7%significant
n=451 games · 17/93 HR when active
+34.7%significant
n=438 games · 37/254 HR when active
-24.7%significant
n=452 games · 22/207 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +35% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+47%
93 yes / 358 no · 58 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+35%
60 yes / 393 no · 59 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight
+35%
254 yes / 184 no · 56 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+26%
92 yes / 220 no · 39 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−25%
207 yes / 245 no · 58 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−20%
70 yes / 362 no · 57 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−20%
194 yes / 254 no · 59 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+18%
157 yes / 296 no · 59 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+17%
50 yes / 403 no · 59 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+16%
190 yes / 258 no · 58 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+16%
73 yes / 362 no · 56 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−13%
39 yes / 396 no · 56 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+12%
53 yes / 400 no · 59 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+11%
113 yes / 338 no · 58 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−10%
135 yes / 318 no · 59 HRs
Playing at home
+10%
234 yes / 219 no · 59 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+8%
71 yes / 380 no · 58 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+8%
190 yes / 263 no · 59 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+6%
111 yes / 341 no · 58 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−5%
168 yes / 285 no · 59 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
63 yes / 335 no · 54 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
330 yes / 121 no · 58 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
17 yes / 435 no · 59 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
9 yes / 444 no · 59 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 450 no · 58 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
354 yes / 98 no · 59 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 453 no · 59 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Dansby Swanson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.