← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +5.8% edge model 59% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Changeup (19% usage, .398 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 59% +5.8% 30% CAUTION Home Runs OVER 0.5 8% +2.1% 10% CAUTION
Matchup Tyrone Taylor (RHB) vs Jesús Luzardo LHP favors batter favors pitcher Jesús Luzardo LHP · season · 101.9 IP · 438 BF
Tyrone Taylor hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 20-114 .175 .298 .123 3 4.2% 19.3% vs LHP 11-53 .208 .396 .189 2 0.0% 26.4%
Pitch-type matchup Jesús Luzardo's arsenal × how Tyrone Taylor hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Jesús Luzardo throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sweeper 33% 86.1 44% .346 Four-Seam 31% 96.6 16% .392 TOP Changeup19% 87.3 36% .327 Sinker 12% 95.8 13% .353 Slider 5% 86.4 32% .352
Tyrone Taylor vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sweeper 187 31% .337 80.0 Four-Seam 514 10% .295 82.5 TOP Changeup125 33% .398 83.7 Sinker 273 8% .322 89.1 Slider 294 30% .368 86.2
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits30% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles10% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks10% RBIs20% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs40% Stolen Bases0%
30% 3/10 · L10 · avg 0.4
Our model 59% OVER +5.8% edge A
0 vDET 05-13 0 vDET 05-14 1 vNYY 05-17 2 @WSN 05-18 0 @WSN 05-19 0 @WSN 05-20 0 @MIA 05-22 1 @MIA 05-23 0 @MIA 05-24 0 vCIN 05-25
L5 20% 1/5 L10 30% 3/10 L20 35% 7/20 2026 41% 22/54 2025 53% 56/106
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 2.8 Plate Appearances avg 2.8
4 2 3 6 3 1 1 1 4 3 Total Bases avg 0.9
0 0 4 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-28 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-115 Hits OVER 1.5+450 Hits OVER 2.5+2250 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1506
Price legs
Splits Career n=119 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-05-25
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
20-114 .175 .298 .123 5 0 3 5 19.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
11-53 .208 .396 .189 4 0 2 0 26.4% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
9-61 .148 .213 .066 1 0 1 5 13.1% vs Jesús Luzardo
tonight's starting pitcher
3-9 .333 .444 .111 1 0 0 1 11.1% vs PHI
tonight's opponent (full roster)
11-55 .200 .309 .109 3 0 1 6 38.2% @ Citi Field
tonight's stadium
0-129 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 33.3%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.247
wOBA 0.237
delta −0.010 due
n=118 PA
Spray chart 348 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Jesús Luzardo's mix Balls in play 348
HR rate 1.7%
Hard-hit (95+) 35%
Avg exit velo 84.3 mph
Ground ball 34%
Line drive 27%
Fly ball 26%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-05-25 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-05-24 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-05-23 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-1 · 1 2B · 1 R 2026-05-22 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-05-20 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-05-19 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-05-18 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-6 · 1 2B · 2 R 2026-05-17 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R 2026-05-14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-05-13 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Tyrone Taylor across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.