Byron Buxton

CF · RHB · RHP · MIN

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

LAD

Starter

Eric Lauer (LHP)

Stadium

Target Field

Model HR%

32.5%

Model Hits%

72.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+6.6% edgemodel 73% · grade A

Why: Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340): +37.7% lift over 58 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (46% usage, .467 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	73%	+6.6%	80%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	32%	+4.9%	40%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Byron Buxton, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	0-1	0%	-100.0%
A	—	—	—
B	1-0	100%	+335.0%

Combined 1-1 · n=2 · ROI +117.5% · avg CLV -0.6 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Byron Buxton (RHB) vs Eric Lauer LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Eric Lauer LHP · season · 58.4 IP · 251 BF

BAA

.244

wOBA

.348

SLG

.489

ISO

.244

WHIP

1.34

HR/9

2.47

BB%

8.8%

15.9%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.7%

HH%

37.8%

FB%

45.2%

HR/FB%

26.2%

Byron Buxton hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	76-280	.271	.604	.332	26	8.8%	28.2%
vs LHP	23-78	.295	.564	.269	6	8.2%	26.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Eric Lauer's arsenal × how Byron Buxton hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Eric Lauer throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	46%	91.4	16%	.386
TOPCutter	20%	86.4	22%	.483
TOPCurveball	14%	75.1	22%	.349
Slider	11%	83.0	22%	.283
Changeup	10%	84.3	15%	.390
Sinker	0%	91.9	—	—

Byron Buxton vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	826	22%	.467	96.8
TOPCutter	245	21%	.421	88.0
TOPCurveball	136	39%	.510	91.2
Slider	403	42%	.539	89.6
Changeup	358	43%	.524	88.3
Sinker	556	20%	.362	90.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.5

Our model73% OVER+6.6% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 1.5

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 3.0

Home Runsavg 0.4

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	73%	+6.6%	-238	—	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	32%	+4.9%	+225	—	Sign in

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	A	54%	—	-105	—	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=307 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	76-280	.271	.604	.332	13	1	26	27	28.2%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	23-78	.295	.564	.269	3	0	6	7	26.9%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	53-202	.262	.619	.356	10	1	20	20	28.7%
Last 15 days recent form	16-45	.356	.822	.467	3	0	6	4	26.7%
vs Eric Lauer tonight's starting pitcher	3-6	.500	1.500	1.000	0	0	2	1	0.0%
vs LAD tonight's opponent (full roster)	5-13	.385	1.077	.692	0	0	3	3	15.4%
@ Target Field tonight's stadium	1230-3080	.399	.792	.393	124	0	362	243	21.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.351

wOBA0.379

delta+0.028 hot

n=306 PA

Spray chart

554 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-wind

Balls in play554

HR rate11.4%

Hard-hit (95+)51%

Avg exit velo92.0 mph

Ground ball34%

Line drive21%

Fly ball36%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+37.7%significant

n=298 games · 19/58 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+28.0%significant

n=299 games · 20/67 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

-17.6%small sample

n=296 games · 9/50 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

0 / 1FAVORABLE

Mostly against

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+45%

27 yes / 272 no · 70 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+38%

58 yes / 240 no · 70 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+28%

67 yes / 232 no · 70 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−26%

77 yes / 223 no · 70 HRs

// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+20%

33 yes / 267 no · 70 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−18%

50 yes / 246 no · 69 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+16%

145 yes / 154 no · 70 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+13%

60 yes / 240 no · 70 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+13%

213 yes / 86 no · 70 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+12%

98 yes / 202 no · 70 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−11%

8 yes / 292 no · 70 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−10%

40 yes / 259 no · 70 HRs

Playing at home

+9%

159 yes / 141 no · 70 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−8%

155 yes / 140 no · 70 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+7%

47 yes / 147 no · 46 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

neutral

198 yes / 98 no · 69 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

neutral

7 yes / 284 no · 69 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

108 yes / 192 no · 70 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

neutral

43 yes / 234 no · 68 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

neutral

40 yes / 251 no · 69 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

121 yes / 171 no · 67 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

24 yes / 275 no · 70 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

1 yes / 295 no · 69 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

42 yes / 207 no · 57 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

160 yes / 127 no · 67 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

207 yes / 93 no · 70 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 300 no · 70 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	5	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 K
2026-06-20	4	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R
2026-06-19	5	2	0	0	1	1	2-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-18	5	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 K
2026-06-16	5	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 3 R · 1 SB · 1 BB
2026-06-15	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-06-14	5	3	1	0	0	2	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 2 K
2026-06-13	4	2	0	1	0	2	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-06-12	4	3	2	1	1	0	3-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 3 R · 1 BB
2026-06-11	3	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Byron Buxton across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.