Matt Olson

1B · LHB · RHP · ATL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

WSH

Starter

Foster Griffin (LHP)

Stadium

Truist Park

Model HR%

19.4%

Model Hits%

69.5%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+4.9% edgemodel 69% · grade B

Why: Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340): +32.7% lift over 96 games · strong vs the Cutter (30% usage, .444 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	69%	+4.9%	60%	STRONG
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	81%	+2.5%	80%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Matt Olson, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	8-2	80%	+83.2%
A	7-4	64%	+27.5%
B	6-4	60%	+60.4%

Combined 21-10 · n=31 · ROI +56.1% · avg CLV -1.3 pts · beat close 26%

Matchup

Matt Olson (LHB) vs Foster Griffin LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Foster Griffin LHP · season · 127.0 IP · 546 BF

BAA

.225

wOBA

.314

SLG

.376

ISO

.150

WHIP

1.21

HR/9

1.35

BB%

7.3%

22.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.8%

HH%

37.9%

FB%

30.9%

HR/FB%

18.8%

Matt Olson hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	118-445	.265	.528	.263	30	10.3%	27.4%
vs LHP	52-194	.268	.485	.216	10	8.5%	27.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Foster Griffin's arsenal × how Matt Olson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Foster Griffin throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPCutter	30%	87.8	17%	.401
TOPFour-Seam	18%	91.5	17%	.403
TOPSweeper	15%	79.9	29%	.414
Changeup	11%	82.6	32%	.269
Sinker	11%	91.0	18%	.289
Curveball	9%	78.0	22%	.427
Splitter	6%	81.2	31%	.433

Matt Olson vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPCutter	346	19%	.444	91.0
TOPFour-Seam	1374	23%	.463	95.8
TOPSweeper	314	21%	.373	90.8
Changeup	409	22%	.348	91.6
Sinker	631	16%	.438	91.9
Curveball	341	27%	.463	92.5
Splitter	138	44%	.384	89.6

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Our model69% OVER+4.9% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5

Plate Appearancesavg 4.5

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.5

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 1.4

Walksavg 0.6

Tonight's lines

2026-07-31 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+400	+1.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	69%	+4.9%	-182	+1.7	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	76%	-2.7%	-375	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-2.6%	+1100	+0.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	81%	+2.5%	-357	-1.9	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	14%	—	+140	+3.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+400	+1.8	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	48%	—	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	35%	—	+140	+1.5	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=496 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-07-29

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	118-445	.265	.528	.263	27	30	51	27.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	52-194	.268	.485	.216	12	10	18	27.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	66-251	.263	.562	.299	15	20	33	27.1%
Last 15 days recent form	12-50	.240	.460	.220	2	3	9	38.0%
vs Foster Griffin tonight's starting pitcher	1-6	.167	.333	.167	1	0	0	33.3%
@ Truist Park tonight's stadium	3503-13225	.265	.518	.254	650	901	1996	25.4%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.343

wOBA0.375

delta+0.032 hot

n=494 PA

Spray chart

795 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-wind

Balls in play795

HR rate7.7%

Hard-hit (95+)52%

Avg exit velo92.9 mph

Ground ball38%

Line drive22%

Fly ball31%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+32.7%significant

n=474 games · 28/96 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

-22.5%significant

n=473 games · 10/63 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+25.6%significant

n=459 games · 66/275 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28

// TONIGHT

1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY

Mixed signals tonight

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+26% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
−24% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+33%

136 yes / 339 no · 106 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+33%

96 yes / 378 no · 106 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight

+26%

275 yes / 184 no · 100 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+24%

217 yes / 257 no · 106 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+24%

67 yes / 408 no · 106 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight

−24%

205 yes / 270 no · 106 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−22%

63 yes / 410 no · 105 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−22%

181 yes / 280 no · 101 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+20%

319 yes / 156 no · 106 HRs

// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−20%

316 yes / 157 no · 105 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−17%

16 yes / 458 no · 106 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+16%

178 yes / 292 no · 105 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+16%

93 yes / 381 no · 106 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+15%

244 yes / 99 no · 75 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+14%

80 yes / 339 no · 92 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−13%

113 yes / 345 no · 102 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−13%

380 yes / 94 no · 106 HRs

Playing at home

−10%

247 yes / 228 no · 106 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

+10%

14 yes / 444 no · 102 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+9%

103 yes / 371 no · 106 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−9%

79 yes / 368 no · 100 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+8%

61 yes / 411 no · 106 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−8%

12 yes / 463 no · 106 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+6%

288 yes / 187 no · 106 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

66 yes / 406 no · 106 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 475 no · 106 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 473 no · 105 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-07-30	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-29	4	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 K
2026-07-29	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-07-27	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-07-26	6	1	1	0	1	2	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-07-25	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-24	5	2	0	1	0	2	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-07-23	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-22	5	2	0	0	2	0	2-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 BB
2026-07-21	5	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Matt Olson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.