Pete Alonso

1B · RHB · RHP · BAL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

LAA

Starter

Ryan Johnson (RHP)

Stadium

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Model HR%

23.1%

Model Hits%

69.0%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 0.5+1.6% edgemodel 31% · grade PASS

Why: struggles vs the Splitter (15% usage, .276 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 0.5	31%	+1.6%	—	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	23%	+1.1%	—	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Pete Alonso, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-4	43%	-11.3%
A	4-6	40%	-40.0%
B	5-6	45%	+28.8%

Combined 12-16 · n=28 · ROI -5.8% · avg CLV -0.4 pts · beat close 45%

Matchup

Pete Alonso (RHB) vs Ryan Johnson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Ryan Johnson RHP · season · 58.1 IP · 250 BF

BAA

.271

wOBA

.355

SLG

.471

ISO

.200

WHIP

1.48

HR/9

1.86

BB%

10.0%

18.4%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.8%

HH%

35.7%

FB%

41.4%

HR/FB%

18.5%

Pete Alonso hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	111-448	.248	.453	.205	23	12.7%	28.1%
vs RHP	80-310	.258	.487	.229	18	13.9%	27.7%

Pitch-type matchup

Ryan Johnson's arsenal × how Pete Alonso hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Ryan Johnson throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPCutter	39%	90.7	25%	.313
TOPSinker	22%	93.6	9%	.413
TOPSweeper	20%	80.8	32%	.363
Splitter	15%	84.6	38%	.257
Slider	3%	86.5	25%	.424
Four-Seam	1%	94.9	0%	1.423

Pete Alonso vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPCutter	244	20%	.524	96.4
TOPSinker	840	15%	.439	92.0
TOPSweeper	432	23%	.439	92.5
Splitter	75	21%	.276	90.8
Slider	561	32%	.453	91.6
Four-Seam	1059	24%	.571	99.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	8%	—	+400	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	31%	+1.6%	+220	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	70%	+1.1%	-217	-1.5	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	7%	-4.9%	+750	+1.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	23%	+1.1%	+354	-0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	16%	—	+155	+0.8	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+340	+1.9	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	47%	—	-102	+1.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	B	12%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	41%	—	+110	+0.9	Sign in to save	—
2.5	—	PASS	29%	—	+170	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=513 PA · 2026-03-17 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	111-448	.248	.453	.205	23	23	65	28.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	31-138	.225	.377	.152	6	5	15	29.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	80-310	.258	.487	.229	17	18	50	27.7%
Last 15 days recent form	14-49	.286	.490	.204	4	2	3	20.4%
vs LAA tonight's opponent (full roster)	2-13	.154	.154	.000	0	0	2	38.5%
@ Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight's stadium	3760-13930	.270	.576	.306	502	1254	2324	32.7%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.363

wOBA0.353

delta−0.010 due

n=513 PA

Spray chart

812 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play812

HR rate7.8%

Hard-hit (95+)54%

Avg exit velo93.4 mph

Ground ball39%

Line drive25%

Fly ball30%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+58.9%significant

n=464 games · 21/56 HR when active

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+53.4%significant

n=464 games · 81/319 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+38.8%significant

n=464 games · 26/85 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04

// TONIGHT

4 / 4HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning favorable

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+73% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
+59% HR rate when vs fly-ball-prone pitcher (fb% allowed > 40%).
+53% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
+39% HR rate when vs hr-prone pitcher (hr/pa > 3.8%).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight

1.73× HR rate

186 yes / 277 no · 101 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)tonight

1.59× HR rate

56 yes / 408 no · 103 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight

1.53× HR rate

319 yes / 145 no · 103 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)tonight

+39%

85 yes / 379 no · 103 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+24%

100 yes / 367 no · 103 HRs

// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

+20%

3 yes / 469 no · 104 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−18%

378 yes / 93 no · 104 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+16%

57 yes / 415 no · 104 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−15%

266 yes / 206 no · 104 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−13%

106 yes / 211 no · 71 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+13%

85 yes / 360 no · 97 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+11%

103 yes / 365 no · 103 HRs

Playing at home

+10%

241 yes / 231 no · 104 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+10%

210 yes / 258 no · 103 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

+10%

10 yes / 443 no · 100 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−8%

61 yes / 409 no · 103 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+8%

218 yes / 252 no · 103 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+6%

56 yes / 339 no · 85 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−6%

78 yes / 375 no · 100 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−5%

253 yes / 199 no · 99 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

neutral

456 yes / 16 no · 104 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

neutral

283 yes / 184 no · 103 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

8 yes / 464 no · 104 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

17 yes / 454 no · 104 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

203 yes / 269 no · 104 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

131 yes / 341 no · 104 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 464 no · 103 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-08-04	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 K
2026-08-02	2	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-2
2026-08-01	4	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-07-31	4	2	0	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-07-29	6	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-6 · 2 K
2026-07-28	3	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-2 · 1 BB
2026-07-27	5	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-07-26	5	2	0	1	1	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-25	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 SB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Pete Alonso across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.