Jake Cronenworth

2B · LHB · SDP

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

MIN

Starter

Bailey Ober (RHP)

Stadium

Petco Park

Model HR%

11.2%

Model Hits%

65.8%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs UNDER 0.5+1.9% edgemodel 89% · grade PASS

Why: struggles vs the Changeup (31% usage, .224 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	89%	+1.9%	90%	LEAN
Hits	OVER 0.5	66%	+1.6%	80%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Jake Cronenworth, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	9-0	100%	+110.8%
A	2-1	67%	+9.7%
B	5-5	50%	+47.9%

Combined 16-6 · n=22 · ROI +68.4% · avg CLV -4.1 pts · beat close 29%

Matchup

Jake Cronenworth (LHB) vs Bailey Ober RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Bailey Ober RHP · season · 110.5 IP · 475 BF

BAA

.260

wOBA

.358

SLG

.448

ISO

.188

WHIP

1.34

HR/9

1.55

BB%

7.0%

15.6%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.4%

HH%

39.1%

FB%

42.5%

HR/FB%

15.2%

Jake Cronenworth hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	64-283	.226	.304	.078	4	11.8%	24.7%
vs RHP	48-219	.219	.297	.078	3	12.7%	26.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Bailey Ober's arsenal × how Jake Cronenworth hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Bailey Ober throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	35%	89.8	16%	.377
Changeup	31%	83.1	26%	.329
Slider	17%	83.3	19%	.354
Sweeper	10%	77.9	36%	.353
Curveball	4%	74.6	20%	.630
Sinker	3%	89.8	5%	.521

Jake Cronenworth vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	1140	9%	.338	89.0
Changeup	283	33%	.224	85.1
Slider	281	23%	.312	89.1
Sweeper	152	31%	.264	81.5
Curveball	188	29%	.280	82.0
Sinker	424	9%	.363	86.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.1

Our model66% OVER+1.6% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.1

Singlesavg 0.7

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 1.7

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-08-23 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+499	+0.4	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	66%	+1.6%	-179	+0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	22%	-2.9%	+300	-2.8	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	89%	+1.9%	-667	+12.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	7%	—	+230	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	5%	—	+600	+1.8	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	47%	—	+105	+1.2	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+700	-1.7	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	32%	—	+160	+23.5	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=321 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-22

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	64-283	.226	.304	.078	10	4	38	24.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	16-64	.250	.328	.078	2	1	6	20.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	48-219	.219	.297	.078	8	3	32	26.0%
Last 15 days recent form	13-52	.250	.365	.115	3	1	5	32.7%
vs Bailey Ober tonight's starting pitcher	1-6	.167	.333	.167	1	0	0	16.7%
vs MIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	14-50	.280	.360	.080	4	0	6	30.0%
@ Petco Park tonight's stadium	1139-4341	.262	.291	.029	72	18	187	32.7%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.293

wOBA0.294

delta+0.001 hot

n=320 PA

Spray chart

550 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play550

HR rate2.7%

Hard-hit (95+)37%

Avg exit velo87.0 mph

Ground ball46%

Line drive22%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-22	5	2	2	0	0	3	2-for-5 · 2 2B · 2 RBI · 2 R · 3 K
2026-08-21	3	0	0	0	2	1	0-for-1 · 1 R · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-08-19	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-08-18	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-08-17	4	2	0	0	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-08-16	5	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-08-15	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-08-14	5	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-08-12	5	1	0	0	1	2	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-08-11	4	1	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Jake Cronenworth across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.