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Stadium
Great American Ball Park
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +9.8% edge model 73% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Sinker (42% usage, .381 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 73% +9.8% 40% LEAN Home Runs UNDER 0.5 80% +2.7% 90% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jake Bauers, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-8 20% -64.3% A 0-3 0% -100.0% B 1-1 50% +208.5%
Combined 3-12 · n=15 · ROI -35.1% · avg CLV +0.7 pts · beat close 56%
Matchup Jake Bauers (LHB) vs Brady Singer RHP favors batter favors pitcher Brady Singer RHP · season · 78.4 IP · 337 BF
Jake Bauers hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 66-238 .277 .555 .277 17 14.1% 27.3% vs RHP 50-177 .282 .599 .316 15 15.3% 27.7%
Pitch-type matchup Brady Singer's arsenal × how Jake Bauers hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Brady Singer throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Sinker42% 91.9 13% .409 Slider 29% 82.5 26% .345 Sweeper 11% 81.5 34% .374 Four-Seam 9% 91.2 17% .449 Cutter 8% 87.5 21% .389
Jake Bauers vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Sinker222 14% .381 92.7 Slider 202 31% .336 91.6 Sweeper 131 34% .375 91.9 Four-Seam 553 14% .467 93.6 Cutter 111 20% .607 91.9
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits40% Total Bases20% Home Runs10% Singles30% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks50% RBIs10% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
40% 4/10 · L10 · avg 0.5
Our model 73% OVER +9.8% edge S
0 @OAK 06-09 0 @OAK 06-10 1 vPHI 06-12 1 vPHI 06-13 0 vCLE 06-16 0 vCLE 06-17 1 vCLE 06-18 0 @ATL 06-19 0 @ATL 06-20 2 @ATL 06-21
L5 40% 2/5 L10 40% 4/10 L20 50% 10/20 2026 65% 53/82 2025 40% 38/94
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.7 Plate Appearances avg 3.7
4 4 4 5 3 4 5 1 2 5 Total Bases avg 0.8
0 0 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.4
1 4 2 1 0 0 2 0 2 2
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 12% — +476 -0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 73% +9.8% -169 +1.1 Sign in 1.5 OVER B 31% +4.7% +280 -1.5 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 6% -1.3% +1200 -0.6 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5UNDER PASS 80% +2.7% -345 -0.6 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 15% — +140 +0.0 — 1.5 — PASS 11% — +380 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 50% — +135 +0.5 — 1.5 — PASS 12% — +800 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — S 49% — +147 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -169 +280 +1200 -345
Price legs
Splits Career n=277 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
66-238 .277 .555 .277 15 0 17 39 27.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
16-61 .262 .426 .164 4 0 2 7 26.2% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
50-177 .282 .599 .316 11 0 15 32 27.7% Last 15 days
recent form
5-29 .172 .379 .207 0 0 2 8 44.8% vs Brady Singer
tonight's starting pitcher
0-4 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 4 50.0% vs CIN
tonight's opponent (full roster)
3-19 .158 .368 .211 1 0 1 5 31.6%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.341
wOBA 0.379
delta +0.038 hot
n=277 PA
Spray chart 320 balls in play since 2025 · wind 9 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Brady Singer's mix Balls in play 320
HR rate 8.1%
Hard-hit (95+) 52%
Avg exit velo 91.6 mph
Ground ball 42%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 30%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 5 2 0 0 0 0 2 2-for-5 · 1 R · 2 K 2026-06-20 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-2 · 2 K 2026-06-19 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-0 · 1 BB 2026-06-18 5 1 0 0 0 1 2 1-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-17 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-13 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 K 2026-06-12 4 1 0 0 1 1 2 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-10 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 0-for-4 · 4 K 2026-06-09 4 0 0 0 0 2 1 0-for-2 · 1 R · 2 BB · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jake Bauers across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
