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Ryan McMahon
3B · LHB · RHP · NYY
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ryan McMahon, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-6 | 57% | +39.5% |
| A | 3-3 | 50% | -32.0% |
| B | 2-5 | 29% | -57.7% |
Combined 13-14 · n=27 · ROI -1.6% · avg CLV +0.6 pts · beat close 53%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.4Plate Appearancesavg 3.4
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.7
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.4
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=366 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.282
wOBA0.277
delta−0.005 due
n=365 PA
Spray chart
571 balls in play since 2025Balls in play571
HR rate5.4%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo90.4 mph
Ground ball43%
Line drive23%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-18.7%small sample
n=347 games · 21/183 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Playing at home
1.68× HR rate
181 yes / 167 no · 45 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
1.58× HR rate
147 yes / 201 no · 45 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.52× HR rate
24 yes / 324 no · 45 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+36%
219 yes / 129 no · 45 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−23%
99 yes / 249 no · 45 HRs
// 7 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−19%
183 yes / 164 no · 45 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+15%
17 yes / 330 no · 45 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+14%
251 yes / 96 no · 45 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ryan McMahon across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.