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Willy Adames
SS · RHB · RHP · SFG
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Willy Adames, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | — | — | — |
| A | 3-4 | 43% | -23.7% |
| B | 8-5 | 62% | +92.4% |
Combined 11-9 · n=20 · ROI +51.8% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 56%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=471 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.293
wOBA0.306
delta+0.013 hot
n=470 PA
Spray chart
738 balls in play since 2025Balls in play738
HR rate6.8%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo88.1 mph
Ground ball33%
Line drive22%
Fly ball36%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+66.9%significant
n=448 games · 59/330 HR when active
+40.8%significant
n=451 games · 20/94 HR when active
-25.3%significant
n=390 games · 6/57 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
1.67× HR rate
330 yes / 118 no · 70 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+41%
94 yes / 357 no · 70 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
0.60× HR rate
365 yes / 87 no · 71 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+33%
196 yes / 255 no · 70 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+32%
259 yes / 194 no · 71 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+30%
196 yes / 257 no · 71 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+30%
19 yes / 433 no · 71 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+29%
136 yes / 317 no · 71 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+28%
103 yes / 346 no · 70 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+26%
15 yes / 438 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−25%
57 yes / 333 no · 61 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+22%
238 yes / 199 no · 70 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+22%
75 yes / 354 no · 70 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−21%
133 yes / 320 no · 71 HRs
// 14 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−22%
8 yes / 430 no · 70 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+18%
46 yes / 407 no · 71 HRs
Playing at home
−17%
235 yes / 218 no · 71 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+15%
2 yes / 451 no · 71 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+14%
59 yes / 379 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+13%
61 yes / 387 no · 70 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+9%
84 yes / 218 no · 50 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+8%
114 yes / 337 no · 70 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−8%
259 yes / 194 no · 71 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−6%
222 yes / 226 no · 71 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
186 yes / 259 no · 70 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
61 yes / 392 no · 71 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 448 no · 70 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Willy Adames across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.