Mauricio Dubón

LF · RHB · RHP · ATL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

HOU

Starter

Hunter Brown

Stadium

Daikin Park

Model HR%

7.3%

Model Hits%

66.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+4.3% edgemodel 67% · grade B

Why: strong vs the Sinker (23% usage, .360 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	67%	+4.3%	90%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	7%	-1.0%	0%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Mauricio Dubón, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	15-5	75%	+48.8%
A	13-3	81%	+69.0%
B	12-15	44%	-7.3%

Combined 40-23 · n=63 · ROI +29.9% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Mauricio Dubón (RHB) vs Hunter Brown favors batterfavors pitcher

Hunter Brown · season · 99.3 IP · 427 BF

BAA

.216

wOBA

.289

SLG

.334

ISO

.119

WHIP

1.37

HR/9

1.00

BB%

13.1%

27.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.8%

HH%

38.4%

FB%

25.2%

HR/FB%

18.0%

Mauricio Dubón hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	154-572	.269	.386	.117	11	6.2%	12.4%
vs ?HP	106-374	.283	.398	.115	7	6.7%	13.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Hunter Brown's arsenal × how Mauricio Dubón hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Hunter Brown throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	37%	96.6	26%	.345
TOPSinker	23%	95.7	16%	.295
Knuckle Curve	18%	83.5	38%	.383
Changeup	12%	88.2	25%	.303
Slider	8%	91.3	24%	.384
Cutter	1%	93.4	24%	.694

Mauricio Dubón vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	708	15%	.290	85.8
TOPSinker	344	9%	.360	87.9
Knuckle Curve	26	21%	.166	79.1
Changeup	177	12%	.231	83.5
Slider	338	24%	.292	82.0
Cutter	210	13%	.275	85.2

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.4

Our model67% OVER+4.3% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.4

Singlesavg 1.1

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.8

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.4

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+610	-0.2	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	67%	+4.3%	-167	-0.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	77%	+1.7%	-400	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	7%	-1.0%	+1100	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	4%	—	+286	-1.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	3%	—	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	54%	—	-111	-3.9	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	14%	—	+450	+0.8	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	29%	—	+180	+1.2	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=610 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	154-572	.269	.386	.117	28	3	11	38	12.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	48-198	.242	.364	.121	12	0	4	11	9.6%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	106-374	.283	.398	.115	16	3	7	27	13.9%
Last 15 days recent form	16-49	.327	.429	.102	3	1	0	5	10.2%
vs HOU tonight's opponent (full roster)	2-9	.222	.333	.111	1	0	0	0	22.2%
@ Daikin Park tonight's stadium	36-90	.400	.600	.200	18	0	0	0	20.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.291

wOBA0.305

delta+0.014 hot

n=608 PA

Spray chart

836 balls in play since 2025· wind 2 mph cross-wind

Balls in play836

HR rate2.2%

Hard-hit (95+)29%

Avg exit velo85.7 mph

Ground ball41%

Line drive24%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-18	5	2	1	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 K
2026-09-16	4	2	1	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 3B · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-15	4	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 SB · 1 BB
2026-09-14	4	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-13	5	3	0	0	1	1	3-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-12	5	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 RBI
2026-09-10	3	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-09-09	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Mauricio Dubón across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.