Ozzie Albies

2B · SHB · RHP · ATL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

HOU

Starter

Hunter Brown

Stadium

Daikin Park

Model HR%

10.4%

Model Hits%

66.2%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+10.1% edgemodel 66% · grade S

Why: Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%): +48.1% lift over 93 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (37% usage, .346 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	66%	+10.1%	40%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	10%	+1.0%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Ozzie Albies, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	9-11	45%	+30.7%
A	5-6	45%	-16.8%
B	7-14	33%	-24.3%

Combined 21-31 · n=52 · ROI -1.5% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 31%

Matchup

Ozzie Albies (SHB) vs Hunter Brown favors batterfavors pitcher

Hunter Brown · season · 99.3 IP · 427 BF

BAA

.216

wOBA

.289

SLG

.334

ISO

.119

WHIP

1.37

HR/9

1.00

BB%

13.1%

27.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.8%

HH%

38.4%

FB%

25.2%

HR/FB%

18.0%

Ozzie Albies hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	145-618	.235	.388	.154	22	8.2%	15.9%
vs ?HP	80-370	.216	.368	.151	14	10.4%	19.5%

Pitch-type matchup

Hunter Brown's arsenal × how Ozzie Albies hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Hunter Brown throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	37%	96.6	26%	.345
Sinker	23%	95.7	16%	.295
Knuckle Curve	18%	83.5	38%	.383
Changeup	12%	88.2	25%	.303
Slider	8%	91.3	24%	.384
Cutter	1%	93.4	24%	.694

Ozzie Albies vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	966	18%	.346	90.6
Sinker	445	13%	.306	90.0
Knuckle Curve	75	12%	.319	82.0
Changeup	462	15%	.273	85.4
Slider	315	30%	.362	87.8
Cutter	245	24%	.348	84.3

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.5

Our model66% OVER+10.1% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9

Plate Appearancesavg 3.9

Hitsavg 0.5

Singlesavg 0.2

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.1

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.7

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+475	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	66%	+10.1%	-128	+0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	23%	+2.3%	+380	+0.8	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	10%	+1.0%	+961	-0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	7%	—	+285	-0.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	4%	—	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	50%	—	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	31%	—	+190	+1.7	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=673 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	145-618	.235	.388	.154	27	1	22	55	15.9%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	65-248	.262	.419	.157	15	0	8	12	10.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	80-370	.216	.368	.151	12	1	14	43	19.5%
Last 15 days recent form	6-44	.136	.295	.159	2	1	1	4	18.2%
vs Hunter Brown tonight's starting pitcher	1-4	.250	.500	.250	1	0	0	2	0.0%
vs HOU tonight's opponent (full roster)	5-27	.185	.259	.074	2	0	0	5	18.5%
@ Daikin Park tonight's stadium	0-54	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	18	33.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.274

wOBA0.300

delta+0.026 hot

n=672 PA

Spray chart

1050 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph blowing out

Balls in play1050

HR rate3.7%

Hard-hit (95+)29%

Avg exit velo87.4 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive24%

Fly ball31%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+48.1%significant

n=496 games · 19/93 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+30.6%significant

n=496 games · 17/93 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-21.7%significant

n=474 games · 9/83 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning favorable

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+25% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+49%

69 yes / 425 no · 70 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+48%

93 yes / 403 no · 70 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−31%

69 yes / 425 no · 70 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+31%

93 yes / 403 no · 70 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+26%

184 yes / 300 no · 70 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight

+25%

142 yes / 354 no · 70 HRs

Playing at home

−25%

253 yes / 243 no · 70 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+24%

18 yes / 477 no · 70 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−22%

83 yes / 391 no · 68 HRs

// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−19%

15 yes / 481 no · 70 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+18%

64 yes / 431 no · 70 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+18%

402 yes / 93 no · 70 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−16%

272 yes / 224 no · 70 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−16%

54 yes / 442 no · 70 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+14%

84 yes / 351 no · 59 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−13%

204 yes / 287 no · 69 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−13%

12 yes / 472 no · 69 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−8%

128 yes / 356 no · 69 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+6%

211 yes / 285 no · 70 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

287 yes / 192 no · 64 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 495 no · 70 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

neutral

350 yes / 145 no · 70 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

224 yes / 272 no · 70 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

neutral

182 yes / 314 no · 70 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

115 yes / 381 no · 70 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 495 no · 70 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-16	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-15	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB
2026-09-14	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-13	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-5
2026-09-12	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-10	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1-for-1 · 1 3B · 1 R
2026-09-09	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Ozzie Albies across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.