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Ozzie Albies
2B · SHB · RHP · ATL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ozzie Albies, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-0 | 100% | +57.2% |
| A | 1-7 | 13% | -59.4% |
| B | 8-5 | 62% | +63.6% |
Combined 13-12 · n=25 · ROI +23.2% · avg CLV -0.9 pts · beat close 23%
Matchup
Ozzie Albies (SHB) vs Janson Junk RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Janson Junk's arsenal × how Ozzie Albies hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.9
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=503 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-02
xStats luck
xwOBA0.289
wOBA0.318
delta+0.029 hot
n=502 PA
Spray chart
923 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph blowing inBalls in play923
HR rate3.8%
Hard-hit (95+)30%
Avg exit velo87.2 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive24%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+34.7%significant
n=458 games · 18/93 HR when active
+30.4%significant
n=458 games · 17/90 HR when active
-19.2%small sample
n=435 games · 9/77 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −27% HR rate when playing at home.
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+45%
69 yes / 387 no · 67 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+38%
173 yes / 273 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+35%
93 yes / 365 no · 67 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+30%
90 yes / 368 no · 67 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+27%
368 yes / 89 no · 67 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+27%
130 yes / 328 no · 67 HRs
Playing at hometonight
−27%
231 yes / 227 no · 67 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−24%
59 yes / 397 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+23%
59 yes / 398 no · 67 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+22%
18 yes / 439 no · 67 HRs
// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−19%
77 yes / 358 no · 65 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−18%
310 yes / 147 no · 67 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−18%
46 yes / 412 no · 67 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−14%
12 yes / 434 no · 66 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−13%
12 yes / 446 no · 67 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−11%
248 yes / 210 no · 67 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−10%
192 yes / 261 no · 66 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−10%
99 yes / 359 no · 67 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+6%
198 yes / 260 no · 67 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
81 yes / 323 no · 57 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 457 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
208 yes / 250 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
264 yes / 179 no · 61 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
110 yes / 336 no · 66 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
163 yes / 295 no · 67 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 457 no · 67 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ozzie Albies across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.