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Rafael Devers
1B · LHB · RHP · SFG
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Rafael Devers, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-0 | 100% | +59.6% |
| A | 2-7 | 22% | -11.0% |
| B | 2-1 | 67% | -0.3% |
Combined 6-8 · n=14 · ROI +1.4% · avg CLV -9.6 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.6
Splits
Career n=493 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.340
wOBA0.352
delta+0.012 hot
n=492 PA
Spray chart
740 balls in play since 2025Balls in play740
HR rate7.8%
Hard-hit (95+)54%
Avg exit velo93.2 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive22%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+68.8%significant
n=455 games · 53/204 HR when active
+53.7%significant
n=455 games · 25/85 HR when active
-32.0%significant
n=437 games · 8/68 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
1.69× HR rate
204 yes / 251 no · 89 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
1.54× HR rate
85 yes / 370 no · 89 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−32%
68 yes / 369 no · 85 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+28%
221 yes / 73 no · 58 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−27%
209 yes / 244 no · 88 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−26%
67 yes / 384 no · 89 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+24%
87 yes / 368 no · 89 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−27%
10 yes / 441 no · 88 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+18%
18 yes / 439 no · 89 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+18%
91 yes / 361 no · 89 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−17%
300 yes / 158 no · 89 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−16%
47 yes / 411 no · 89 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−13%
368 yes / 89 no · 89 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+13%
53 yes / 398 no · 88 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+11%
35 yes / 423 no · 89 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+10%
177 yes / 271 no · 88 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+9%
259 yes / 179 no · 86 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+9%
205 yes / 253 no · 89 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−8%
319 yes / 132 no · 89 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+6%
132 yes / 326 no · 89 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−6%
209 yes / 249 no · 89 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−5%
7 yes / 451 no · 89 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
243 yes / 215 no · 89 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
180 yes / 278 no · 89 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
71 yes / 322 no · 74 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 458 no · 89 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 451 no · 89 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Rafael Devers across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.