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Josh Naylor
1B · LHB · LHP · SEA
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+1.1% edgemodel 14% · grade PASS
Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +35.9% lift over 149 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (20% usage, .375 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Josh Naylor, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-5 | 67% | +31.3% |
| A | 11-6 | 65% | +10.4% |
| B | 2-8 | 20% | -70.6% |
Combined 23-19 · n=42 · ROI -1.4% · avg CLV -2.3 pts · beat close 28%
Matchup
Josh Naylor (LHB) vs Tomoyuki Sugano RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Tomoyuki Sugano's arsenal × how Josh Naylor hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 1.1
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.3
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=631 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.311
wOBA0.317
delta+0.006 hot
n=631 PA
Spray chart
1024 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph blowing outBalls in play1024
HR rate3.3%
Hard-hit (95+)37%
Avg exit velo87.4 mph
Ground ball46%
Line drive24%
Fly ball23%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+35.9%significant
n=315 games · 22/149 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +36% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- −34% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
- +30% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Rested (2+ days off)
+47%
21 yes / 294 no · 39 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+38%
148 yes / 168 no · 39 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
+36%
149 yes / 166 no · 39 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight
0.66× HR rate
25 yes / 291 no · 39 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
+30%
106 yes / 210 no · 39 HRs
// 7 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Playing at home
−15%
161 yes / 155 no · 39 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+6%
116 yes / 200 no · 39 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
228 yes / 87 no · 39 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Josh Naylor across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.