Yandy Díaz

DH · RHB · RHP · TBR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

Starter

Michael Wacha (RHP)

Stadium

Tropicana Field

Model HR%

18.8%

Model Hits%

74.3%

Model K%

28.5%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+5.3% edgemodel 19% · grade A

Why: NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%): -49.5% lift over 157 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (28% usage, .467 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	19%	+5.3%	0%	CAUTION
Hits	UNDER 1.5	69%	+4.3%	50%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Yandy Díaz, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	4-2	67%	-4.9%
A	2-1	67%	+68.0%
B	2-2	50%	+21.0%

Combined 8-5 · n=13 · ROI +19.9% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Yandy Díaz (RHB) vs Michael Wacha RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Michael Wacha RHP · season · 97.9 IP · 421 BF

BAA

.239

wOBA

.328

SLG

.416

ISO

.177

WHIP

1.31

HR/9

1.10

BB%

8.6%

19.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.7%

HH%

40.2%

FB%

32.6%

HR/FB%

15.4%

Yandy Díaz hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	96-294	.327	.500	.173	12	11.7%	15.0%
vs RHP	69-205	.337	.512	.176	8	12.4%	13.7%

Pitch-type matchup

Michael Wacha's arsenal × how Yandy Díaz hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Michael Wacha throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	28%	93.0	16%	.389
TOPChangeup	24%	80.0	28%	.297
Cutter	15%	88.4	15%	.372
TOPSinker	14%	93.1	11%	.396
Slider	11%	84.8	28%	.372
Curveball	8%	75.4	31%	.344

Yandy Díaz vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	864	17%	.467	96.0
TOPChangeup	262	12%	.377	93.3
Cutter	358	13%	.246	88.9
TOPSinker	824	10%	.370	91.4
Slider	467	14%	.398	92.0
Curveball	150	11%	.331	90.3

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.3

Our model74% OVER+0.3% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6

Plate Appearancesavg 4.6

Hitsavg 1.3

Singlesavg 1.2

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.4

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.6

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+350	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	OVER	PASS	74%	+0.3%	-375	+0.0	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	B	69%	+4.3%	-182	+0.4	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	7%	-7.7%	+600	+0.0	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	19%	+5.3%	+642	+0.4	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	14%	—	+180	-0.6	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+550	+1.1	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	53%	—	-165	-2.0	—
1.5	—	S	12%	—	+240	+4.4	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	28%	—	-137	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	PASS	48%	—	+113	+0.0	—
2.5	—	PASS	31%	—	+220	+0.0	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=333 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	96-294	.327	.500	.173	13	1	12	39	15.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	27-89	.303	.472	.169	3	0	4	10	18.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	69-205	.337	.512	.176	10	1	8	29	13.7%
Last 15 days recent form	14-47	.298	.362	.064	0	0	1	8	19.1%
vs Michael Wacha tonight's starting pitcher	1-6	.167	.167	.000	0	0	0	3	16.7%
@ Tropicana Field tonight's stadium	1476-3741	.395	.542	.148	114	0	146	589	13.5%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.343

wOBA0.391

delta+0.048 hot

n=333 PA

Spray chart

764 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play764

HR rate4.8%

Hard-hit (95+)54%

Avg exit velo93.2 mph

Ground ball53%

Line drive22%

Fly ball21%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

-49.5%significant

n=370 games · 22/213 HR when active

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-24.3%significant

n=385 games · 24/177 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

-23.0%significant

n=383 games · 8/67 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

4 / 10FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning against

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

+54% HR rate when playing at home.
-34% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
-24% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).

Playing at home

1.54× HR rate

200 yes / 186 no · 64 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

0.51× HR rate

213 yes / 157 no · 58 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+38%

75 yes / 181 no · 39 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−34%

39 yes / 346 no · 63 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−30%

152 yes / 234 no · 64 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+29%

181 yes / 200 no · 62 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−24%

177 yes / 208 no · 63 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−23%

67 yes / 316 no · 63 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+22%

64 yes / 316 no · 62 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+22%

158 yes / 219 no · 61 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+20%

48 yes / 270 no · 53 HRs

// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+18%

50 yes / 335 no · 63 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−16%

67 yes / 317 no · 63 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+11%

25 yes / 360 no · 64 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+9%

160 yes / 217 no · 60 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−9%

237 yes / 143 no · 62 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−9%

291 yes / 94 no · 64 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+9%

61 yes / 324 no · 63 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−9%

35 yes / 351 no · 64 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

+7%

4 yes / 373 no · 61 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

neutral

69 yes / 317 no · 64 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

288 yes / 98 no · 64 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

125 yes / 261 no · 64 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

neutral

63 yes / 302 no · 57 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 386 no · 64 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 386 no · 64 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 380 no · 62 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	2	1	1	0	2-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-20	5	2	0	1	2	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-19	4	2	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 R
2026-06-17	5	2	0	1	1	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-16	4	1	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-15	5	0	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 K
2026-06-14	5	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-13	4	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-06-12	5	1	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-10	5	3	0	0	0	3-for-5 · 2 RBI · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Yandy Díaz across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.