← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +10.6% edge model 69% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (27% usage, .412 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 69% +10.6% 40% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 19% +1.3% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Rhys Hoskins, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-4 33% -41.0% A 0-4 0% -100.0% B 0-3 0% -100.0%
Combined 2-11 · n=13 · ROI -72.7% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 33%
Matchup Rhys Hoskins (RHB) vs Anthony Kay LHP favors batter favors pitcher Anthony Kay LHP · season · 84.9 IP · 365 BF
Rhys Hoskins hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 38-197 .193 .401 .208 9 16.9% 34.5% vs LHP 10-68 .147 .353 .206 4 18.1% 36.8%
Pitch-type matchup Anthony Kay's arsenal × how Rhys Hoskins hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Anthony Kay throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam27% 95.7 16% .461 Sweeper 20% 82.5 31% .315 Cutter 19% 90.8 16% .393 TOP Sinker18% 94.8 14% .405 Changeup 14% 85.7 23% .306 Slider 2% 84.2 33% .313
Rhys Hoskins vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam595 19% .412 94.3 Sweeper 225 39% .309 80.9 Cutter 165 27% .310 88.7 TOP Sinker368 12% .384 90.2 Changeup 188 32% .299 92.4 Slider 409 35% .328 85.8
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits40% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles10% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts90% Walks10% RBIs10% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs40% Stolen Bases0%
40% 4/10 · L10 · avg 0.4
Our model 69% OVER +10.6% edge S
1 vNYY 06-09 0 vNYY 06-10 1 vDET 06-12 0 vDET 06-13 1 @MIL 06-16 0 @MIL 06-17 0 @MIL 06-18 1 @HOU 06-19 0 @HOU 06-20 0 @HOU 06-21
L5 20% 1/5 L10 40% 4/10 L20 45% 9/20 2026 43% 33/76 2025 49% 48/97
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.9 Plate Appearances avg 3.9
5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 1 Total Bases avg 0.9
1 0 2 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.6
2 1 0 2 2 3 1 1 3 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 11% — +500 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 69% +10.6% -141 +0.3 Sign in 1.5 OVER A 25% +6.0% +380 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -1.1% +1600 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 19% +1.3% +457 +0.4 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 13% — +182 -0.3 — 1.5 — PASS 10% — +475 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 44% — +170 +0.7 — 1.5 — PASS 8% — +1000 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 45% — +164 +0.4 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -141 +380 +1600 +457
Price legs
Splits Career n=237 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
38-197 .193 .401 .208 14 0 9 40 34.5% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
10-68 .147 .353 .206 2 0 4 15 36.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
28-129 .217 .426 .209 12 0 5 25 33.3% Last 15 days
recent form
4-39 .103 .231 .128 2 0 1 2 43.6%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.277
wOBA 0.318
delta +0.041 hot
n=236 PA
Spray chart 334 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Anthony Kay's mix Balls in play 334
HR rate 6.6%
Hard-hit (95+) 40%
Avg exit velo 89.2 mph
Ground ball 30%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 31%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-06-20 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-4 · 3 K 2026-06-19 4 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-18 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-17 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-4 · 3 K 2026-06-16 4 1 1 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 K 2026-06-13 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-12 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R 2026-06-10 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-09 5 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-5 · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Rhys Hoskins across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
