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Kyle Schwarber
DH · LHB · RHP · PHI
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Kyle Schwarber, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-3 | 70% | +39.3% |
| A | 4-6 | 40% | -33.9% |
| B | 9-14 | 39% | -6.0% |
Combined 20-23 · n=43 · ROI -1.9% · avg CLV -2.1 pts · beat close 29%
Matchup
Kyle Schwarber (LHB) vs Miles Mikolas RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 0.7
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.4
Walksavg 1.0
Splits
Career n=489 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.360
wOBA0.369
delta+0.009 hot
n=489 PA
Spray chart
669 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph blowing outBalls in play669
HR rate13.2%
Hard-hit (95+)55%
Avg exit velo93.7 mph
Ground ball32%
Line drive25%
Fly ball33%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+33.5%significant
n=471 games · 71/223 HR when active
+25.9%significant
n=448 games · 30/88 HR when active
+18.4%small sample
n=469 games · 98/341 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +34% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- +26% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
- −23% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
+34%
223 yes / 248 no · 128 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−28%
58 yes / 412 no · 128 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight
+26%
287 yes / 183 no · 128 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+26%
88 yes / 360 no · 122 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)tonight
−23%
215 yes / 115 no · 90 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−25%
9 yes / 451 no · 126 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+18%
341 yes / 128 no · 128 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−15%
257 yes / 196 no · 123 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+13%
109 yes / 363 no · 128 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−12%
370 yes / 101 no · 128 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−11%
317 yes / 155 no · 128 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−11%
76 yes / 396 no · 128 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+10%
83 yes / 386 no · 128 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−9%
98 yes / 374 no · 128 HRs
Playing at home
+9%
243 yes / 229 no · 128 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+8%
109 yes / 361 no · 128 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
14 yes / 458 no · 128 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−6%
101 yes / 359 no · 126 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
208 yes / 264 no · 128 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
58 yes / 344 no · 109 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
20 yes / 451 no · 128 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
191 yes / 273 no · 124 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
64 yes / 405 no · 128 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
150 yes / 322 no · 128 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
236 yes / 231 no · 127 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 469 no · 128 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 472 no · 128 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Kyle Schwarber across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.