Shohei Ohtani

TWP · LHB · RHP · LAD

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

MIN

Starter

Zebby Matthews (RHP)

Stadium

Target Field

Model HR%

26.8%

Model Hits%

73.4%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs UNDER 0.5+7.0% edgemodel 73% · grade A

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	73%	+7.0%	50%	LEAN
Hits	UNDER 1.5	68%	+3.7%	90%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Shohei Ohtani, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	—	—	—
A	1-1	50%	-27.5%
B	0-1	0%	-100.0%

Combined 1-2 · n=3 · ROI -51.7% · avg CLV -1.8 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Shohei Ohtani (LHB) vs Zebby Matthews RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Zebby Matthews RHP · season · 46.5 IP · 200 BF

BAA

.243

wOBA

.305

SLG

.418

ISO

.175

WHIP

1.23

HR/9

1.55

BB%

5.5%

17.5%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.8%

HH%

39.3%

FB%

41.4%

HR/FB%

13.3%

Shohei Ohtani hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	80-278	.288	.536	.248	16	17.0%	28.1%
vs RHP	56-191	.293	.550	.257	11	19.7%	28.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Zebby Matthews's arsenal × how Shohei Ohtani hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Zebby Matthews throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	41%	96.1	19%	.470
TOPSlider	24%	87.9	36%	.361
TOPCutter	12%	91.5	22%	.386
Changeup	10%	87.1	21%	.352
Curveball	7%	81.4	27%	.365
Sinker	4%	95.6	7%	.290
Splitter	0%	83.5	—	—

Shohei Ohtani vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1221	24%	.585	96.9
TOPSlider	544	38%	.520	93.8
TOPCutter	333	28%	.677	98.3
Changeup	554	34%	.522	91.6
Curveball	312	41%	.549	93.4
Sinker	580	20%	.510	94.1
Splitter	183	36%	.368	92.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Our model73% OVER+0.8% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.2

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 2.4

Home Runsavg 0.5

Strikeoutsavg 1.0

Walksavg 0.9

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	9%	—	+300	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	OVER	PASS	73%	+0.8%	-350	+0.0	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	B	68%	+3.7%	-182	-0.9	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-7.9%	+600	+0.0	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	A	73%	+7.0%	-196	+0.0	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	19%	—	+120	+0.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	16%	—	+380	+0.0	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	48%	—	+100	+2.4	—
1.5	—	B	11%	—	+550	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	B	51%	—	-127	+0.4	—
2.5	—	A	36%	—	+130	+0.0	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=335 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	80-278	.288	.536	.248	17	2	16	57	28.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	24-87	.276	.506	.230	5	0	5	10	26.4%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	56-191	.293	.550	.257	12	2	11	47	28.8%
Last 15 days recent form	9-35	.257	.714	.457	1	0	5	8	31.4%
vs MIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	5-19	.263	.632	.368	1	0	2	1	31.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.427

wOBA0.422

delta−0.005 due

n=333 PA

Spray chart

670 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph cross-wind

Balls in play670

HR rate11.8%

Hard-hit (95+)58%

Avg exit velo94.8 mph

Ground ball40%

Line drive22%

Fly ball35%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

-22.7%significant

n=350 games · 9/49 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+27.7%significant

n=374 games · 19/51 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+23.4%significant

n=395 games · 29/86 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

4 / 6FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

+27% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
+23% HR rate when vs hr-prone pitcher (hr/pa > 3.8%).
-23% HR rate when opposing starter's recent fb velo down ≥1 mph.

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+28%

51 yes / 323 no · 104 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+27%

313 yes / 84 no · 110 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+23%

86 yes / 309 no · 109 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−23%

49 yes / 301 no · 93 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+21%

55 yes / 339 no · 109 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−20%

20 yes / 377 no · 110 HRs

// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+20%

82 yes / 313 no · 109 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+19%

168 yes / 230 no · 110 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−18%

23 yes / 375 no · 110 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+17%

165 yes / 225 no · 107 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+15%

35 yes / 360 no · 110 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−15%

259 yes / 135 no · 109 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−14%

53 yes / 342 no · 110 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−14%

77 yes / 321 no · 110 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+13%

203 yes / 186 no · 106 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+12%

196 yes / 200 no · 110 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+11%

81 yes / 315 no · 110 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−11%

38 yes / 340 no · 107 HRs

Playing at home

+10%

203 yes / 195 no · 110 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+8%

199 yes / 74 no · 72 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−7%

2 yes / 376 no · 107 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

117 yes / 281 no · 110 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

290 yes / 108 no · 110 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

1 yes / 393 no · 109 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 397 no · 110 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

neutral

59 yes / 339 no · 110 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

neutral

187 yes / 206 no · 108 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	3	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-2 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-20	4	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-17	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-06-16	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-06-15	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-14	5	0	0	0	2	2	0-for-3 · 2 BB · 2 K
2026-06-13	6	1	0	1	3	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 3 BB
2026-06-11	4	2	0	1	2	0	2-for-2 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 2 BB
2026-06-10	5	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-06-09	5	1	1	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Shohei Ohtani across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.