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Shohei Ohtani
TWP · LHB · RHP · LAD
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Shohei Ohtani, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-3 | 40% | -42.1% |
| A | 1-1 | 50% | -27.0% |
| B | 2-1 | 67% | +60.7% |
Combined 5-5 · n=10 · ROI -8.2% · avg CLV +0.6 pts · beat close 40%
Matchup
Shohei Ohtani (LHB) vs Matt Wilkinson favors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6Plate Appearancesavg 4.6
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.8
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.6
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=610 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-09-07
xStats luck
xwOBA0.405
wOBA0.393
delta−0.012 due
n=608 PA
Spray chart
843 balls in play since 2025Balls in play843
HR rate11.0%
Hard-hit (95+)55%
Avg exit velo94.0 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive22%
Fly ball33%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-26.8%significant
n=404 games · 9/54 HR when active
+25.2%significant
n=459 games · 30/90 HR when active
-17.6%small sample
n=463 games · 21/96 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +25% HR rate when vs hr-prone pitcher (hr/pa > 3.8%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−27%
54 yes / 350 no · 105 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)tonight
+25%
90 yes / 369 no · 123 HRs
// 26 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+19%
364 yes / 98 no · 124 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+19%
91 yes / 370 no · 124 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+19%
68 yes / 392 no · 123 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−18%
96 yes / 367 no · 124 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−17%
23 yes / 439 no · 124 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+17%
90 yes / 370 no · 123 HRs
Playing at home
+16%
235 yes / 228 no · 124 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+15%
63 yes / 374 no · 118 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+13%
230 yes / 233 no · 124 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−13%
62 yes / 398 no · 124 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−12%
29 yes / 434 no · 124 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+12%
208 yes / 253 no · 124 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+8%
241 yes / 208 no · 118 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+7%
44 yes / 416 no · 124 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 441 no · 121 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+6%
207 yes / 251 no · 122 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−5%
342 yes / 121 no · 124 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
171 yes / 284 no · 121 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
120 yes / 343 no · 124 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
348 yes / 112 no · 123 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
80 yes / 363 no · 121 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 459 no · 123 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
3 yes / 460 no · 124 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
235 yes / 96 no · 85 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
60 yes / 403 no · 124 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Shohei Ohtani across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.