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Ronald Acuña Jr.
RF · RHB · RHP · ATL
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ronald Acuña Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-0 | 100% | +135.5% |
| A | — | — | — |
| B | 1-0 | 100% | +196.0% |
Combined 3-0 · n=3 · ROI +155.7% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.3
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=278 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.381
wOBA0.356
delta−0.025 due
n=278 PA
Spray chart
406 balls in play since 2025Balls in play406
HR rate7.4%
Hard-hit (95+)51%
Avg exit velo92.2 mph
Ground ball45%
Line drive20%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+31.8%significant
n=342 games · 18/71 HR when active
-22.0%significant
n=342 games · 5/39 HR when active
+27.9%significant
n=294 games · 13/54 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
0.62× HR rate
73 yes / 165 no · 44 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+32%
71 yes / 271 no · 66 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+30%
49 yes / 291 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+28%
54 yes / 240 no · 54 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+27%
69 yes / 273 no · 66 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+24%
71 yes / 271 no · 66 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−22%
39 yes / 303 no · 66 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−18%
82 yes / 252 no · 65 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−17%
128 yes / 209 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+17%
200 yes / 127 no · 61 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−14%
22 yes / 319 no · 66 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−13%
10 yes / 324 no · 65 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−12%
49 yes / 291 no · 66 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−11%
216 yes / 125 no · 65 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−10%
243 yes / 99 no · 66 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+10%
46 yes / 296 no · 66 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+8%
127 yes / 204 no · 64 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
2 yes / 340 no · 66 HRs
Playing at home
−7%
178 yes / 164 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−7%
152 yes / 190 no · 66 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+5%
270 yes / 71 no · 66 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
51 yes / 267 no · 60 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
107 yes / 235 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
41 yes / 300 no · 65 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
156 yes / 186 no · 66 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 341 no · 65 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 342 no · 66 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ronald Acuña Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.